have taken a while off but with the restart of Allsvenskan I am back :)
Häcken - Sundsvall
A few players missing in both teams. A bit worse for Häcken but both teams can put strong starting-elevens on the pitch. Häcken is offcourse huge favourites but I think Sundsvall might cause a minor upset. Häcken struggled against Djurgården at home and were lucky to get a point from that game. The way Djurgården played that day is the way to beat Häcken and I think Sören Åkerby (Sundsvalls trainer) thinks the same way and will try to play liek that. That will make Häcken easier to deal with and Sunsvall might sneak a draw.
Sundsvall +1 is the bet for me at 6/4 (2,50)
Åtvidaberg - Elfsborg
Åtvidaberg have some defensive problems as Da silva is out and Hallingström most likely misses the game after having stomach flu in the week. But I still give Åtvidaebrg a chance here. IMO Elfsborg are too big favourites. It is a tough away game, they have some focus on the EL-qualifier against Floriana on thursday and one of their better players, Hiljemark is missing. Also not sure how 35-year old Anders svensson will have the right motivation after swedens poor Euro 12.
Åtvidabeg 14/5 (3,80) is the bet for me, but just with small stakes.
Mjällby - Norrköping
Really open game IMo. Some important players might be leaving Mjällby as their loan spells are coming to an end and it is not sure they play today. Two of them, Kivuvu and Fejzhullahu, have scored 8 of mjällbys 17 goals this season and will be missed.
Norrköping have no major worries, apart from former liverpool youth player Astrit Ajdarevic who is missing as he is Belgium as Standard Liege wants to buy him.
Mjällby draw a lot and as there are some question marks in Mjällby I will leave this game alone. If Kivuvu and Fejzhullahu don´t play ghet on the away side. Otherwise just bet inplay.
Kalmar - Syrianska
Kalmar needed a break and I think they might be stronger now, especially at home. Syrianska have overperformed this season and I think they will fall down the table during the last half of the season.
Staying far away from this game. Kalmar too big favourites but Syrianska offer no value either.
Superettan and div 1
Ängelholm - Varberg
Only bet for me in Superettan today. Ängelholm are good at home while varberg struggle on the road. But I think there is great value on Varberg today. They will like the way Ängelholm play and I think they will cause an upset. 11/4 (3,75) is a bet for me, but handicap bets might be the way to go.
These are the teams I think might be interesting to bet on in Div 1:
Västerås
Frej
Eskilstuna
Lund
Örgryte
Norrby
In Iceland get on the following teams
FH
Vikingur O
Fjölnir
hamar
reynir
In norway I will bet a double on Lilleström and Rosenborg. Good value in both.
30 juni 2012
16 juni 2012
Swedish thoughts (and more) 16-17 June
Sweden out of Euro 2012 and I think it will take a long time before sweden reaches a bigger tournament again. England didn´t look good either. Their defence had been good in all of hodgsons games but against sweden they were really bad. Teams with more attacking power will rip England to pieces (if England progress).
Now my thoughts for the weekend. Just some short ones. let´s start with Saturday
In Euro I think Russia and Poland will win. The prices are not interesting enough though so I will wait for live inplay betting. Russia are too strong for Greece and Poland have been better than the czechs.
In Superettan I have 4 bets:
Trelleborg 14/5 (3,80)
here I go for value. trelleborg are better than they have shown and it is time for some wins. falkenberg are really uneven and they can be really lousy at times.
Hammarby 10/11 (1,91)
hammarby won again after a poor spell and they will continue to win. And as they are playing against ljungskile I think they will win quite easily. Ljungskile are not a good away team.
Halmstad 10/11 (1,91)
Great form and even though they haven´t been all that good in away matches they should beat a really poor Värnamo side.
Other bets in Sweden, Finland and Iceland. Just the teams to bet on:
Frej
Sirius
HJK
Breidablik
KR
On Sunday I really believe that Holland will win and do their best to reach 2nd place. bet on them.
But I think they will fail as Germany and Denmark will draw.
Just 1 bet on sunday but I feel that is really good.
landskrona 13/8 (2,62)
Öster are going really well winning all the time. BUT, they have been lucky and many wins have come on late goals and some wins they were not worth. Soon ther emust be a reaction and Landskrona is in good form with 4 wins in the last 5 matches. I think öster´s first loss will come here and I like the price on Landskrona.
Now my thoughts for the weekend. Just some short ones. let´s start with Saturday
In Euro I think Russia and Poland will win. The prices are not interesting enough though so I will wait for live inplay betting. Russia are too strong for Greece and Poland have been better than the czechs.
In Superettan I have 4 bets:
Trelleborg 14/5 (3,80)
here I go for value. trelleborg are better than they have shown and it is time for some wins. falkenberg are really uneven and they can be really lousy at times.
Hammarby 10/11 (1,91)
hammarby won again after a poor spell and they will continue to win. And as they are playing against ljungskile I think they will win quite easily. Ljungskile are not a good away team.
Halmstad 10/11 (1,91)
Great form and even though they haven´t been all that good in away matches they should beat a really poor Värnamo side.
Other bets in Sweden, Finland and Iceland. Just the teams to bet on:
Frej
Sirius
HJK
Breidablik
KR
On Sunday I really believe that Holland will win and do their best to reach 2nd place. bet on them.
But I think they will fail as Germany and Denmark will draw.
Just 1 bet on sunday but I feel that is really good.
landskrona 13/8 (2,62)
Öster are going really well winning all the time. BUT, they have been lucky and many wins have come on late goals and some wins they were not worth. Soon ther emust be a reaction and Landskrona is in good form with 4 wins in the last 5 matches. I think öster´s first loss will come here and I like the price on Landskrona.
12 juni 2012
My Euro thoughts day 5
First round finished and what a crap first round it has been. Only one team have impressed a little and that was Russia, but the czechs were really awful. Hope for better football from now on... or Europe will fall asleep.
Seden were crap yesterday. When I saw the lineup I recommended bets on Ukraine on twitter. Anders Svensson should have been on from start as Sweden would have needed more experience on midfield. And in defence we look really poor. And Rosenberg up front is a joke. Toivonen must play there when Elmander can´t.
Today I have two great bets.
Poland +1
This is a hate game and Poland´s fans will demand a win and I think they might get it. Poland were poor in the first game but Russia were not as good as their result as the Czechs were awful. Worth a small bet.
Greece
greece should be favourites. Greece alway get better when they have had a small success and I can´t see the worst team in Euro (czechs) get any points here.
My tips for QF-teams after the first round
Russia
Greece
Denmark
Germany
Croatia
Italy
Frane
Ukraine
Seden were crap yesterday. When I saw the lineup I recommended bets on Ukraine on twitter. Anders Svensson should have been on from start as Sweden would have needed more experience on midfield. And in defence we look really poor. And Rosenberg up front is a joke. Toivonen must play there when Elmander can´t.
Today I have two great bets.
Poland +1
This is a hate game and Poland´s fans will demand a win and I think they might get it. Poland were poor in the first game but Russia were not as good as their result as the Czechs were awful. Worth a small bet.
Greece
greece should be favourites. Greece alway get better when they have had a small success and I can´t see the worst team in Euro (czechs) get any points here.
My tips for QF-teams after the first round
Russia
Greece
Denmark
Germany
Croatia
Italy
Frane
Ukraine
10 juni 2012
Euro 2012 - day 3
Fist upset in the tournament yesterday as Denmark beat Holland. I have Holland to go through to QF, so I am happy, even though I figured it would happen on the expense of Germany. Now it looks tough for Holland, who surely must beat Germany to progress.
Today I have started to grow more and more confident in Ireland beating Croatia. This is the game both teams need to win to progress (atleast it looks that way now) and ireland have nothing to fear in Croatia, who, honestly, are on their way down IMO.
Ireland at 13/5 (3,60) is a bet for me.
In the first game today I think compilers and punters have overreeacted to the bribery charges in Italy and how it will effect Italy. The loss against Russia was poor, but it was a friendly and Russia are quite good.
here I go solely on value. Italy should never be 7/2 (4,50) against Spain. Some bookies had over 4/1 yesterday and that is wrong. Italy have for once been far away from being favourites in a tournament and the value is on them in this first match. Not saying they will win, but Spain are too big favourites.
Today I have started to grow more and more confident in Ireland beating Croatia. This is the game both teams need to win to progress (atleast it looks that way now) and ireland have nothing to fear in Croatia, who, honestly, are on their way down IMO.
Ireland at 13/5 (3,60) is a bet for me.
In the first game today I think compilers and punters have overreeacted to the bribery charges in Italy and how it will effect Italy. The loss against Russia was poor, but it was a friendly and Russia are quite good.
here I go solely on value. Italy should never be 7/2 (4,50) against Spain. Some bookies had over 4/1 yesterday and that is wrong. Italy have for once been far away from being favourites in a tournament and the value is on them in this first match. Not saying they will win, but Spain are too big favourites.
08 juni 2012
Euro day 1
First day of Euro 2012 and I have changed my mind.
After listening to people who really know about the football in Poland I have decided NOT to bet on Poland tonight. Poland are not good, we all know that. Everyone writes of Greece, but they can play well and over the qualifying campaign they have met and beaten better teams than Poland have (who only have played friendlies).
A friend from Poland said that everyone in Poland put their hopes on Poland maybe beating the russians, as there stil is some animosity there, but no way that Poland should be evens (2,00) against greece.
My intial bet was mainly made because I reckoned Greece would be whipin boys, but ´now I feel they are worth a bet and will try +1 at 3/4 (1,75) and straight win at 7/2 (4,50)
In sweden tonight I would reccomend a bet too.
Sirius will beat Eskilstuna and prides around 7/10 (1,70) are worth a bet.
In The Icelandic cup there are 4 games tonight
Two big favourites that will win are FH and breidablik. Will be low prices but either wait a while and hope for no early goals as the live inplay prices often go up quickly, or try -1 on both.
In the other two games I think Valur and KR will win, but check prices first. Valur should be around evens and KR around 5/4 (2,25)
After listening to people who really know about the football in Poland I have decided NOT to bet on Poland tonight. Poland are not good, we all know that. Everyone writes of Greece, but they can play well and over the qualifying campaign they have met and beaten better teams than Poland have (who only have played friendlies).
A friend from Poland said that everyone in Poland put their hopes on Poland maybe beating the russians, as there stil is some animosity there, but no way that Poland should be evens (2,00) against greece.
My intial bet was mainly made because I reckoned Greece would be whipin boys, but ´now I feel they are worth a bet and will try +1 at 3/4 (1,75) and straight win at 7/2 (4,50)
In sweden tonight I would reccomend a bet too.
Sirius will beat Eskilstuna and prides around 7/10 (1,70) are worth a bet.
In The Icelandic cup there are 4 games tonight
Two big favourites that will win are FH and breidablik. Will be low prices but either wait a while and hope for no early goals as the live inplay prices often go up quickly, or try -1 on both.
In the other two games I think Valur and KR will win, but check prices first. Valur should be around evens and KR around 5/4 (2,25)
07 juni 2012
My Euro thoughts - outright and 1st round
lastly some outright bets. Most of these have been better value on but I give you william Hills prices at the moment on them.
Winners - Russia (20/1 - 21,00), Holland (13/2 - 7,50)
Goalscorer - Dzagoev (100/1 - 101,00)
Player of the tournament - RvP (14/1 - 15,00), Zlatan (100/1 - 101,00), Dzagoev (66/1 - 67,00)
Teams to score fewest goals - greece (7/1 - 8,00), England (25/1 - 26,00), Portugal (20/1 - 21,00)
Name the finalists - Holland/Russia - 66/1 (67,00)
My first round treble:
Holland
Russia
Sweden
9,23/1 (10,23)
Winners - Russia (20/1 - 21,00), Holland (13/2 - 7,50)
Goalscorer - Dzagoev (100/1 - 101,00)
Player of the tournament - RvP (14/1 - 15,00), Zlatan (100/1 - 101,00), Dzagoev (66/1 - 67,00)
Teams to score fewest goals - greece (7/1 - 8,00), England (25/1 - 26,00), Portugal (20/1 - 21,00)
Name the finalists - Holland/Russia - 66/1 (67,00)
My first round treble:
Holland
Russia
Sweden
9,23/1 (10,23)
05 juni 2012
My Euro 2012 thoughts Group D
Sweden´s group, and England´s. And a really interesting one too.
I believe that Ukraine won´t stand a chance. They are hosts, yes, but have had loads of problems with injured goalkeepers etc. and if they weren´t hosts, they wouldn´t be near Euro 2012.
France look good. I think they might win the group.
England do not look good. OK, they have beaten Belgium and Norway 1-0 but they look boring and will struggle against tougher teams.
Sweden play Serbia today. Sweden have Zlatan and that is important. Otherwise Sweden have some poorr players in the squad and really won´t be able to handle injuries on the best players.
bets in first round
Ukraine v Sweden
Excellent bet to be made here. 23/10 (3,30) on Sweden is really good. This is a really important game for both teams, losers will probably go out and Sweden are IMO better than Ukraine and the price is one of the best in the first round in this tournament.
france v England
France are IMo better than England and if France score they will win (I think) 6/4 (2,50) is Ok. The price ws higher but even british bookies have realised that England will lose.
Other bets in this group
Sweden´s best scorer: Zlatan should be a banker. penalties and some freekicks willa dd to his tally.
England to get eliminated in group stage: 6/4. If my predictions are correct, this will happen.
My thoughts.
Sweden and France win their first games.
in the second round france beat Ukraine giving them 6 points. England never beat Sweden in tournaments and as most often they will draw giving Sweden 4 points.
As England, after a win to ukraine, only can reach 4 points the game between Sweden and France will end in a friendly draw. France already through and Sweden need just a ppoint to come 2nd.
I believe that Ukraine won´t stand a chance. They are hosts, yes, but have had loads of problems with injured goalkeepers etc. and if they weren´t hosts, they wouldn´t be near Euro 2012.
France look good. I think they might win the group.
England do not look good. OK, they have beaten Belgium and Norway 1-0 but they look boring and will struggle against tougher teams.
Sweden play Serbia today. Sweden have Zlatan and that is important. Otherwise Sweden have some poorr players in the squad and really won´t be able to handle injuries on the best players.
bets in first round
Ukraine v Sweden
Excellent bet to be made here. 23/10 (3,30) on Sweden is really good. This is a really important game for both teams, losers will probably go out and Sweden are IMO better than Ukraine and the price is one of the best in the first round in this tournament.
france v England
France are IMo better than England and if France score they will win (I think) 6/4 (2,50) is Ok. The price ws higher but even british bookies have realised that England will lose.
Other bets in this group
Sweden´s best scorer: Zlatan should be a banker. penalties and some freekicks willa dd to his tally.
England to get eliminated in group stage: 6/4. If my predictions are correct, this will happen.
My thoughts.
Sweden and France win their first games.
in the second round france beat Ukraine giving them 6 points. England never beat Sweden in tournaments and as most often they will draw giving Sweden 4 points.
As England, after a win to ukraine, only can reach 4 points the game between Sweden and France will end in a friendly draw. France already through and Sweden need just a ppoint to come 2nd.
04 juni 2012
My Euro 2012 thoughts Group C
This is actually the group where I have fewest thoughts. I have no bets here at all.
Spain are favourites but I won´t believe in them this time. They will qualify from the group but then I think they could strugle.
Italy have beens dismissed by many after the poor ussia performance. But if they get a week now without distractions they could become a team and Italy can always draw 3 times and qualify.
It wouldn´t surprise me if Ireland also draw all 3 games as they are a team that plays quite boring.
Croatia could be a dark horse in this tournament. They play really well soemtimes but they haven´t shown it in the friendlies leading up to Euro 2012.
Maybe a group with 6 drawn games or a group just like the one with Italy and Ireland in WC 1994, when all teams ended on 4 points?
I will wait to bet onthis group after the first round.
Spain are favourites but I won´t believe in them this time. They will qualify from the group but then I think they could strugle.
Italy have beens dismissed by many after the poor ussia performance. But if they get a week now without distractions they could become a team and Italy can always draw 3 times and qualify.
It wouldn´t surprise me if Ireland also draw all 3 games as they are a team that plays quite boring.
Croatia could be a dark horse in this tournament. They play really well soemtimes but they haven´t shown it in the friendlies leading up to Euro 2012.
Maybe a group with 6 drawn games or a group just like the one with Italy and Ireland in WC 1994, when all teams ended on 4 points?
I will wait to bet onthis group after the first round.
03 juni 2012
My Euro 2012 thoughts Group B
Group B is one of the toughest groups. Everyone expects Germany and Holland to get through easily but thers could be some upsets. Portugal lost against Turkey yesterday and I have said for a long time that Portugal are the most overrated team in Europe. IMO they will end with 0 points in this tournament.
Holland are my favourites. I also think they have a chance on winning it all.
bets:
Germany v Portugal
germany at evens (2,00) is really good. IMO there is classdifferenceand germany need a win here if they want to progress.
Denmark v Portugal
In the 2nd round. 16/5 (4,20) is too good here. Denmark usually find it easy to play against Portugal and this price is too high not to bet on.
I think Holland will win against Denmark and if they then beat Germany there will be an important last round game between Denmark and Germany. I believe that Denmark have a small chance against Germany and 4/1 (5,00) for the danes to qualify is a small bet for me.
Also go for Agger to be best scorer in Denmark. 14/1 (15,00) on the penaltytaker is too good.
Portugal to score under 4 goals at 6/4 (2,50) is a good bet. I will also try 14/1 (15,00) on 0 points for Portugal.
My thoughts here are:
Holland to win after 3 wins (or 7 points if they take it easy in the last game when qualified). 2nd place will be between Denamrk and germany and their last round game will decide ho goes through.
Holland are my favourites. I also think they have a chance on winning it all.
bets:
Germany v Portugal
germany at evens (2,00) is really good. IMO there is classdifferenceand germany need a win here if they want to progress.
Denmark v Portugal
In the 2nd round. 16/5 (4,20) is too good here. Denmark usually find it easy to play against Portugal and this price is too high not to bet on.
I think Holland will win against Denmark and if they then beat Germany there will be an important last round game between Denmark and Germany. I believe that Denmark have a small chance against Germany and 4/1 (5,00) for the danes to qualify is a small bet for me.
Also go for Agger to be best scorer in Denmark. 14/1 (15,00) on the penaltytaker is too good.
Portugal to score under 4 goals at 6/4 (2,50) is a good bet. I will also try 14/1 (15,00) on 0 points for Portugal.
My thoughts here are:
Holland to win after 3 wins (or 7 points if they take it easy in the last game when qualified). 2nd place will be between Denamrk and germany and their last round game will decide ho goes through.
02 juni 2012
My Euro 2012- thoughts Group A
I will present some short thoughts of the Euro 2012 that starts soon. First Group A.
I have for a while been pushing for Russia as champions. I think they have been really forgotten, but after thrashing Italy yesterday I think more people will be on the russia-train. Or thye might just bet against italy instead :)
(Prices in individual games are William Hills, just because it is easiest fo me)
Poland v Greece
Greece will be the whipping boys once again. I can´t belive how a such crappyt eam always get to the championships. Poland are the hosts and I have a feeling that Poland could surprise many in this tournament.
They will start of with a win at evens (2,00)
Russia v Czech
This is the bet of the first round aa Russia are 11/10 (2,10). Czechs have not been good in friendlies lately, beating poor teams by just a goal and losing yesterday to Hungary. I on´t think the Czech´s have any chance at all.
I won´t tip up more than the first round games unless the prices are really good, and I can´t find that yet in this group.
Russia might draw in one game, against Poland or Greece to secure progress to the QF. But I think they along they way will score many goals. I also have a feeling that it will be Alan Dzagoev that will score most of them and at 15/2 (7,50) he si my pick for best russian scorer.
Russia to score more than 5 goals in the tournament is a bet too at 7/4 (2,75)
Russia to win group at 7/5 (2,40) and greece to finish last at 6/4 (2,50) are banker bets IMO.
Putting many eggs in the Russia basket, but I have them as one of my picks for Euro 2012-winners (20/1), but that and more tournamnt bets will come in my last preview of the Euros.
After Russia I think Poland couls qualify for the QF, but whether it is them or any other tteam they will ose in the QF. This group is really weak and that´s why I believe that one of Europe´s best teams (Russi) will breeze througha nd score loads along the way)
I have for a while been pushing for Russia as champions. I think they have been really forgotten, but after thrashing Italy yesterday I think more people will be on the russia-train. Or thye might just bet against italy instead :)
(Prices in individual games are William Hills, just because it is easiest fo me)
Poland v Greece
Greece will be the whipping boys once again. I can´t belive how a such crappyt eam always get to the championships. Poland are the hosts and I have a feeling that Poland could surprise many in this tournament.
They will start of with a win at evens (2,00)
Russia v Czech
This is the bet of the first round aa Russia are 11/10 (2,10). Czechs have not been good in friendlies lately, beating poor teams by just a goal and losing yesterday to Hungary. I on´t think the Czech´s have any chance at all.
I won´t tip up more than the first round games unless the prices are really good, and I can´t find that yet in this group.
Russia might draw in one game, against Poland or Greece to secure progress to the QF. But I think they along they way will score many goals. I also have a feeling that it will be Alan Dzagoev that will score most of them and at 15/2 (7,50) he si my pick for best russian scorer.
Russia to score more than 5 goals in the tournament is a bet too at 7/4 (2,75)
Russia to win group at 7/5 (2,40) and greece to finish last at 6/4 (2,50) are banker bets IMO.
Putting many eggs in the Russia basket, but I have them as one of my picks for Euro 2012-winners (20/1), but that and more tournamnt bets will come in my last preview of the Euros.
After Russia I think Poland couls qualify for the QF, but whether it is them or any other tteam they will ose in the QF. This group is really weak and that´s why I believe that one of Europe´s best teams (Russi) will breeze througha nd score loads along the way)
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