After listening through all ESC songs I have a few betting ideas:
Lets start with semi 1:
Denmark are huge favourties. can´t see why. A bland, qute boring song with a singer that also looks bland. They will qualify for the final but no top 5 spot there for me.
3 songs stick out in the first semi;
Holland send Anouk - remember her "Nobody´s wife", that was a huge hit in Europe. After that she has kept her popularity in central Europe and a big name always get votes from old fans. 8/1 to win the semi.
I also like Ireland, who for once haven´t sent the most hated people in Europe (hedward that is) and this time they can go far. 20/1 to win semi is a small bet.
Belgium is better than the prices show. They wont win, I guess, but 2/1 to qualify is a bet for me.
2nd semi:
A much more boring semi. Can´t find a winner and none if these will end high in the final. Iceland 4/5 to qualify may be the only bet IMO.
Other songs:
In the songs qualified for the final we find some interesting stuff :)
Swedens song is so crap that if we hadn´t won last year and had to compete in a semi, Sweden wouldn´t reach the final. Poor singer with more lousy english pronounciation than the eastern block countries. Just annoying shit.
Gb send Bonnie Tyler. Once again they think that a big name will help them to success. Well, Bonnie without Jim Steinman writing songs is just like Meatloaf without the samr. Really boring and more like her 70´s style, when "It´s a heartbreak was a hit". I don´t think that Bonnie is big enough in Europe to get England in the top half.
Spain sends something bigger and more contemporary. One of he biggest groups in Spain is El Sueño de morfeo and Raquel de Rosario (formerly married to F1-driver Alonso) is one of the most sought after duet partners in Spain and has appeared on loads of huge hits.
She sings well, she looks good, the group is popular and really strong. They are the biig outsiders this year. Unfortunately there aren´t too many Spanish speaking countries in Europe, because in those ESdM are gigantic.
So my bets to win final:
Holland 25/1
Ireland 50/1
Spain 125/1
Belgium 150/1
bet Eachway on all as you get 1/4 of the odds if they come top 4.
10 maj 2013
14 april 2013
Just one bet in sweden
Just one bet in Sweden today. List of fixtures not so fun and hard to find good prices in.
My bet is Skiljebo in Div 2 Norra to beat Enköping.
Enköping are overrated because they have been in higher divisions and were relegated from div 1 last season. But I think the local newspaper is right. Enköping will be closer to div 3 than promotion at the end of the season. Just, mainly, young local players in the squad and they willbe too weak for the better teams, off which Skiljebo is one.
My bet is Skiljebo in Div 2 Norra to beat Enköping.
Enköping are overrated because they have been in higher divisions and were relegated from div 1 last season. But I think the local newspaper is right. Enköping will be closer to div 3 than promotion at the end of the season. Just, mainly, young local players in the squad and they willbe too weak for the better teams, off which Skiljebo is one.
07 april 2013
Swedish bets on sunday
Superettan started yesterday. This season I feel that it is very hard to predict the top teams (even though everyone talks about hammarby) so I recommend only ssmall bets in that league before we see which teams are good or not.
Just short thoughts today as I have little time:
Allsvenskan:
Syrianska +1 2/1 (3,00)
Just a chance bet that Syrianska might upset AIK. AIK are IMO not a team for the real top this season and today they have problems with a few players missing. Especially henoK Goitom, the former Almeria and Murcia attacker is out. Syrianska were poor in the game against Kalmar but I still think thy have a chance here. This game is played at the new Friends arena, which will be AIK:s homeatadium, and I think it will take some time for them and their fans to settle in after so many years at Råsunda.
A value bet and +2 could be worth a bet too.
Kalmar 15/8 (2,87)
I just think Kalmar should be slight favourites here at home to Häcken. So the value is on the hometeam. They did nothing wrong against a poor syrianska last week and Häcken are a bit overrated this eason.
Halmstad +1 4/5 (1,80)
Elfsborg were poor on real grass pitches last season and here they play on just that. Elfsborg is the better team, no doubt about it, but if they continue to go bad on real grass then Halmstad even can win.
Göteborg should win against BP too, but prices (even om handicaps) are a bit low.
In superettan Sundsvall should beat Jönköping (4/6) and hammarby should beat Ljungskile (5/6)
Just short thoughts today as I have little time:
Allsvenskan:
Syrianska +1 2/1 (3,00)
Just a chance bet that Syrianska might upset AIK. AIK are IMO not a team for the real top this season and today they have problems with a few players missing. Especially henoK Goitom, the former Almeria and Murcia attacker is out. Syrianska were poor in the game against Kalmar but I still think thy have a chance here. This game is played at the new Friends arena, which will be AIK:s homeatadium, and I think it will take some time for them and their fans to settle in after so many years at Råsunda.
A value bet and +2 could be worth a bet too.
Kalmar 15/8 (2,87)
I just think Kalmar should be slight favourites here at home to Häcken. So the value is on the hometeam. They did nothing wrong against a poor syrianska last week and Häcken are a bit overrated this eason.
Halmstad +1 4/5 (1,80)
Elfsborg were poor on real grass pitches last season and here they play on just that. Elfsborg is the better team, no doubt about it, but if they continue to go bad on real grass then Halmstad even can win.
Göteborg should win against BP too, but prices (even om handicaps) are a bit low.
In superettan Sundsvall should beat Jönköping (4/6) and hammarby should beat Ljungskile (5/6)
01 april 2013
Allsvenskan Monday
Yesterday I picked all 3 winners in Allsvenskan. Let´s hope that Monay will be equally good :)
Mjällby v Norrköping
I believe this could be the last season for Mjällby in Allsvenskan for a while. I can´t see anything else than this season being a major struggle not to come last. At the moment the team is too weak for Allsvenskan. Norrköping was a team I bet a lot on last season and I think they have potential for a top 6 finish this season too. They will start by a win here at 7/4 (2,75)
Gefle v Åtvidaberg
A game that is impossible to call. Any team could win and it could just as easily be 0-0 as 4-2 to either side. If anything take a chance on the gooals. Over 2,5 is 11/10 (2,10). Joel Rajalakso to score for Åtvidaberg is 10/3 (4,33). Also a fun bet.
Malmö v Halmstad
I don´t believe in Malmö this season. They should end top 6, but I can´t see them fighting for the gold at all. Halmstad could end up in the bottom, but can also be one of the seasons dark horses. I need to see them a few games before betting too much in their games. I think the price on Both teams to score is a bit high today and 23/20 (2,15) is worth a small punt.
BP v Öster
BP is another of those teams that will have to fight to avoid relegation. The battle should be between them, Syrianska and Mjällby IMO. Öster could eb a positive surprise. Some good players that could give them a great start to the season. 19/10 (2,90) is good enough for me.
Elfsborg v AIK
Two teams many pick as the top 2. Elfsborg might find this season a bit touhg though as they will have to combine qualification to CL with Allsvenskan and that could be too much. They need a good start to the season and even though they have a few injuries, I believe they should beat AIK. The price a biy low as AIK can tighten things up. Most probable outcome is a 1-0 or 2-0 to Elfsborg. but this feels like a nobetgame (atleast prematch)
Mjällby v Norrköping
I believe this could be the last season for Mjällby in Allsvenskan for a while. I can´t see anything else than this season being a major struggle not to come last. At the moment the team is too weak for Allsvenskan. Norrköping was a team I bet a lot on last season and I think they have potential for a top 6 finish this season too. They will start by a win here at 7/4 (2,75)
Gefle v Åtvidaberg
A game that is impossible to call. Any team could win and it could just as easily be 0-0 as 4-2 to either side. If anything take a chance on the gooals. Over 2,5 is 11/10 (2,10). Joel Rajalakso to score for Åtvidaberg is 10/3 (4,33). Also a fun bet.
Malmö v Halmstad
I don´t believe in Malmö this season. They should end top 6, but I can´t see them fighting for the gold at all. Halmstad could end up in the bottom, but can also be one of the seasons dark horses. I need to see them a few games before betting too much in their games. I think the price on Both teams to score is a bit high today and 23/20 (2,15) is worth a small punt.
BP v Öster
BP is another of those teams that will have to fight to avoid relegation. The battle should be between them, Syrianska and Mjällby IMO. Öster could eb a positive surprise. Some good players that could give them a great start to the season. 19/10 (2,90) is good enough for me.
Elfsborg v AIK
Two teams many pick as the top 2. Elfsborg might find this season a bit touhg though as they will have to combine qualification to CL with Allsvenskan and that could be too much. They need a good start to the season and even though they have a few injuries, I believe they should beat AIK. The price a biy low as AIK can tighten things up. Most probable outcome is a 1-0 or 2-0 to Elfsborg. but this feels like a nobetgame (atleast prematch)
29 mars 2013
Allsvenskan Sunday
Allsvenskan starts this Easter weekend and I will try and put up bets more frequently. Here are some quick thoughts ahad of the first round.
Häcken v Göteborg
A Göteborg derby. Göteborg are my tip to be champions. I like the way their squad looks and find negative things about all opponents. 8/1 (9,00) for them to win gold is a bet.
They have also become favourites here with many bookies. This is not strange as the game has been moved from Häckens homearena Rambergsvallen to Ullevi, not to be confused by Gamla Ullevi, where IFK Göteborg play their games. But still not any home field advantage for Häcken.
That, and because I believe Göteborg is the better team, are the reasons for me beting on them at 9/5 (2,80)
Syrianska v Kalmar
I picked Kalmar to be relegated last season, but this season I am sure they will come last. They look like the worst team in Allsvenskan and I cant see them beating Kalmar in the first game. Kalmar were Ok in the cupgames preseason and I think they will finish better than last season. 7/4 (2,75) is a bet for me. I think this game will be low on goals and maybe Kalmar and under 2,5 can be a bet.
Helsingborg v Djurgården
Som experts have picked Helsingborg as champions, but I cant see that: I think they are weak in several positions and will finish outside top 3. Djurgården, I done believe in at all. I think they will struggle all season and it will start here with a loss to helsingborg. 19/20 (1,95) maybe a bit low in a first game of the season though
Häcken v Göteborg
A Göteborg derby. Göteborg are my tip to be champions. I like the way their squad looks and find negative things about all opponents. 8/1 (9,00) for them to win gold is a bet.
They have also become favourites here with many bookies. This is not strange as the game has been moved from Häckens homearena Rambergsvallen to Ullevi, not to be confused by Gamla Ullevi, where IFK Göteborg play their games. But still not any home field advantage for Häcken.
That, and because I believe Göteborg is the better team, are the reasons for me beting on them at 9/5 (2,80)
Syrianska v Kalmar
I picked Kalmar to be relegated last season, but this season I am sure they will come last. They look like the worst team in Allsvenskan and I cant see them beating Kalmar in the first game. Kalmar were Ok in the cupgames preseason and I think they will finish better than last season. 7/4 (2,75) is a bet for me. I think this game will be low on goals and maybe Kalmar and under 2,5 can be a bet.
Helsingborg v Djurgården
Som experts have picked Helsingborg as champions, but I cant see that: I think they are weak in several positions and will finish outside top 3. Djurgården, I done believe in at all. I think they will struggle all season and it will start here with a loss to helsingborg. 19/20 (1,95) maybe a bit low in a first game of the season though
03 mars 2013
Sunday betting
The two best bets yesterdaywonj; Frej and Örebro. The handicap on Öster was a winner too. Örgryte is played today.
And so are some more tams.
AIK 13/20
If possible get on AIK and unders on the goals. They should win but it won't be a game full of goals.
Umeå 12/1 (and +1 and +2 when possible to bet)
This could be a huge win for Djurgården, but I have feeling they wont be so good. I have seen the squad and if this is the best Djurgården can put out then they will struggle massively in Allsvenskan. Looking at their friendlies they have far from impressed and I go for my feeling here.
Other bets today;
Banker double in Segunda B grp4
Cartagena is the best team in the division and should win by a few home to Sevilla Atl, who have been really poor.
jaen havent lost a home game and I cant see anyway that they will fail against Sanluqueno.
Put these together with any other bet as a treble. Why not Lleida from yesterdays blog.
But Granada to beat mallorca is also a really good bet.
Almeria have a great chance to beat Hercules and are at a good price.
Cordoba are a better team than Villarreal and at home, at the price they are, they should be a bet.
In Iceland today these are the teams to bet on;
FH. Much better than Fylkir. Could be a 1/2 bet.
Thor. Could be a bet at the right price as Stjarnanwill become favourites.
Leiknir v Haukar - over 2,5 goals. Not happened in these teams Lreague cup games yet, but this could be a game with 4+ goals if I am correct.
Valur. Should win their game but can be priced too low (2/5 and unders)
And so are some more tams.
AIK 13/20
If possible get on AIK and unders on the goals. They should win but it won't be a game full of goals.
Umeå 12/1 (and +1 and +2 when possible to bet)
This could be a huge win for Djurgården, but I have feeling they wont be so good. I have seen the squad and if this is the best Djurgården can put out then they will struggle massively in Allsvenskan. Looking at their friendlies they have far from impressed and I go for my feeling here.
Other bets today;
Banker double in Segunda B grp4
Cartagena is the best team in the division and should win by a few home to Sevilla Atl, who have been really poor.
jaen havent lost a home game and I cant see anyway that they will fail against Sanluqueno.
Put these together with any other bet as a treble. Why not Lleida from yesterdays blog.
But Granada to beat mallorca is also a really good bet.
Almeria have a great chance to beat Hercules and are at a good price.
Cordoba are a better team than Villarreal and at home, at the price they are, they should be a bet.
In Iceland today these are the teams to bet on;
FH. Much better than Fylkir. Could be a 1/2 bet.
Thor. Could be a bet at the right price as Stjarnanwill become favourites.
Leiknir v Haukar - over 2,5 goals. Not happened in these teams Lreague cup games yet, but this could be a game with 4+ goals if I am correct.
Valur. Should win their game but can be priced too low (2/5 and unders)
02 mars 2013
Swedish cup
Getafe wa sthe banker I predicted yesterday and when Watford failed due to really lousy tactical skills from manager Zola, I was happy that I had backed Getafe as BOTD :)
Swedish cup starts today. This season it is played i 8 groups of 4 teams in which the winners go to quarterfinals. Elfsborg, Malmö and Häcken are already in Europe this autumn so I wouldnt back them to go 100% even though most teams claim they do.
So the first bets (no prices at WH, but maybe with other bookies) are
Ljungskile +1 and +2
Elfsborg already in CL and even if they win it wont be by more than a goal.
Öster +1 and +2
Not only are Öster a bit underrated, there is a big chance that Malmö might play a few fringe players.
Örgryte 7/4
Should be bigger favourites at home to a poor syrianska side. This is one of the best cup bets today.
Frej 10/3
Frej are really underrated against a Sundsvall team that rarely impresses. 10/3 is really good and this is another of the best cup bets.
Örebro 8/15
Örebro should beat Värnamo by a few even if they rest one or two players. A good cup banker.
More bets inplay so follow me on twitter
Swedish cup starts today. This season it is played i 8 groups of 4 teams in which the winners go to quarterfinals. Elfsborg, Malmö and Häcken are already in Europe this autumn so I wouldnt back them to go 100% even though most teams claim they do.
So the first bets (no prices at WH, but maybe with other bookies) are
Ljungskile +1 and +2
Elfsborg already in CL and even if they win it wont be by more than a goal.
Öster +1 and +2
Not only are Öster a bit underrated, there is a big chance that Malmö might play a few fringe players.
Örgryte 7/4
Should be bigger favourites at home to a poor syrianska side. This is one of the best cup bets today.
Frej 10/3
Frej are really underrated against a Sundsvall team that rarely impresses. 10/3 is really good and this is another of the best cup bets.
Örebro 8/15
Örebro should beat Värnamo by a few even if they rest one or two players. A good cup banker.
More bets inplay so follow me on twitter
01 mars 2013
Zaragoza
Just a few words about two spanish games. Tonight Zaragoza travel to madrid to meet Getafe and they have big problems as they will have tostart with their third choice goalkeeper, who is the B-sides first choice keeper. he had to jump in last time as the second choice keepper got sent off and the first-choice keeper is injured. Those two are missing again today so Zaragoza are weakened in goal.
getafe is a gret bet and I think they could win by a few goals.
That the B-side´s keeper is in goal tonight forces the B-side to play their 2nd choice keeper (4th ranked keeper in Zaragoza) on sunday in a tricky home game against Lleida. Lleida are better and with a weaker goalkeeper Zaragoza will lose. 6/4 (2,50) on lleida on sunday is really good.
maybe put these two in a double??
Other friday bets could be Monaco, le Havre, Paderborn, Watford and BTTS in the danish game.
getafe is a gret bet and I think they could win by a few goals.
That the B-side´s keeper is in goal tonight forces the B-side to play their 2nd choice keeper (4th ranked keeper in Zaragoza) on sunday in a tricky home game against Lleida. Lleida are better and with a weaker goalkeeper Zaragoza will lose. 6/4 (2,50) on lleida on sunday is really good.
maybe put these two in a double??
Other friday bets could be Monaco, le Havre, Paderborn, Watford and BTTS in the danish game.
24 februari 2013
Sunday
No luck yesterday. But have tips for today :)
Southampton 5/2 (4,50)
Too high on S´oton away to Newcastle who played a tough game in europe midweek.
Granada 17/5 (3,40)
Celtas form is really bad, just 2 points in last 7 games and they will struggle against Granada. Granada ae playing really well and pushed barca last week. They also beat Real amdrid 3 weeks ago. Great price on them today.
Espanyol 13/2 (7,50)
maybe +1 is the better bet but I have belief in Espanyol today. Been playing really good after the break and Atl. Madrid have not been playing so good and proove more and more that they are a oneman team.
Southampton 5/2 (4,50)
Too high on S´oton away to Newcastle who played a tough game in europe midweek.
Granada 17/5 (3,40)
Celtas form is really bad, just 2 points in last 7 games and they will struggle against Granada. Granada ae playing really well and pushed barca last week. They also beat Real amdrid 3 weeks ago. Great price on them today.
Espanyol 13/2 (7,50)
maybe +1 is the better bet but I have belief in Espanyol today. Been playing really good after the break and Atl. Madrid have not been playing so good and proove more and more that they are a oneman team.
23 februari 2013
Best bets Saturday
I´ve been a bit lazy lately. But here are my tips for today. One of them is Bet of the weekend and I´ll start with that.
Alcorcon 4/5 (1,80)
Alcorcon plays the best football in Segunda at the moment. They are better than Elche, but Alcorcon have problems when playing away, otherwise they would be top.
At home they are 10-2-0 (24-8) and away they have won just 4 of 14. Today they play at home and are Bet of the wekend. They meet gijon, who are poor away and been quite poor lately.
Murcia 5/4 (2,25)
Murcia finally won last week and ended a bad spell. Now, they will win more games. Numancia are a poor away team that always have problems when visiting Murcia (any team from Murcia). Murcia are 5/4 and that is really good.
In Iceland I think the following teams are worth bets;
Fram to beat KA. Fram should be around evens or just under.
Throttur to beat Thor. Throttur lost to a good team last time and Thor havent played much. about 2,8/1 (looking at bookies that have priced up).
bets for sunday will come later.
Alcorcon 4/5 (1,80)
Alcorcon plays the best football in Segunda at the moment. They are better than Elche, but Alcorcon have problems when playing away, otherwise they would be top.
At home they are 10-2-0 (24-8) and away they have won just 4 of 14. Today they play at home and are Bet of the wekend. They meet gijon, who are poor away and been quite poor lately.
Murcia 5/4 (2,25)
Murcia finally won last week and ended a bad spell. Now, they will win more games. Numancia are a poor away team that always have problems when visiting Murcia (any team from Murcia). Murcia are 5/4 and that is really good.
In Iceland I think the following teams are worth bets;
Fram to beat KA. Fram should be around evens or just under.
Throttur to beat Thor. Throttur lost to a good team last time and Thor havent played much. about 2,8/1 (looking at bookies that have priced up).
bets for sunday will come later.
16 januari 2013
AFCON
African up of nations starts on saturday and here are my betting thoughts;
Group A:
Angola are really underestimated hee. They are a good african side and is my bet to win group at 7/1. But I also bet that they qualify as the price is so high.
South africa are favourites but I guess that is because they are hosts. They have a good chance of qualification and will fight it out with Moroco. But neither will go well later in the tournament.
Cape Verde may surprise the teams. A really small country where many great players have come from; Nani was born there, Patrick Vieira is a cape verdian born in Senegal. the problem is that the football has been poor in CV and players have found other countries to play for.
Group B:
A poor group and Ghana and Mali should qualify with ease. Ghana being better at the moment and should win the group at 8/15.
Group C:
This group is really interesting. Burkina Faso have deen underrated and I also think Zambia will be strong. This means that I think Nigeria will miss out. Nigeria have been good but I don´t think they ar good enough for this tournament.
Zambia 6/4 to win the group is really good. Also trying BF to qualify.
Ethiopia wont do much.
Group D:
Ivory coast should be the best team but are too big favourites to bet on. Tunisia is IMo stronger than Algeria and are the EW-bet in this group at 9/2.
First round betting:
South africa v Cape Verde - CV+1 (13/10)
First game of AFCON and a home side will take on a team that they might underestimate. A dfraw is very possible but I think Cape verde can surprise.
Angola v Morocco 1 (2/1) Angola DNB (13/8)
Most "experts" are sure that Angola will have no chance in this group, but some bookies have them 2nd favs. I think they could win the group and I am confident in that they are the price in this game. 2/1 to win and 13/8 DNB is too high. Best bet of the first round.
mali v Niger - mali -1 (8/5)
mali should be a few goals better than Niger and 8/5 is too high for them to win -1.
Nigeria v Burkina Faso - 2(7/2), BF DNB (11/4)
Burkina faso are not a bad team at all and a re underrated. value bet.
More bets when Tournamet starts
Group A:
Angola are really underestimated hee. They are a good african side and is my bet to win group at 7/1. But I also bet that they qualify as the price is so high.
South africa are favourites but I guess that is because they are hosts. They have a good chance of qualification and will fight it out with Moroco. But neither will go well later in the tournament.
Cape Verde may surprise the teams. A really small country where many great players have come from; Nani was born there, Patrick Vieira is a cape verdian born in Senegal. the problem is that the football has been poor in CV and players have found other countries to play for.
Group B:
A poor group and Ghana and Mali should qualify with ease. Ghana being better at the moment and should win the group at 8/15.
Group C:
This group is really interesting. Burkina Faso have deen underrated and I also think Zambia will be strong. This means that I think Nigeria will miss out. Nigeria have been good but I don´t think they ar good enough for this tournament.
Zambia 6/4 to win the group is really good. Also trying BF to qualify.
Ethiopia wont do much.
Group D:
Ivory coast should be the best team but are too big favourites to bet on. Tunisia is IMo stronger than Algeria and are the EW-bet in this group at 9/2.
First round betting:
South africa v Cape Verde - CV+1 (13/10)
First game of AFCON and a home side will take on a team that they might underestimate. A dfraw is very possible but I think Cape verde can surprise.
Angola v Morocco 1 (2/1) Angola DNB (13/8)
Most "experts" are sure that Angola will have no chance in this group, but some bookies have them 2nd favs. I think they could win the group and I am confident in that they are the price in this game. 2/1 to win and 13/8 DNB is too high. Best bet of the first round.
mali v Niger - mali -1 (8/5)
mali should be a few goals better than Niger and 8/5 is too high for them to win -1.
Nigeria v Burkina Faso - 2(7/2), BF DNB (11/4)
Burkina faso are not a bad team at all and a re underrated. value bet.
More bets when Tournamet starts
14 januari 2013
Oscar
haven´t written here in a while but as the Oscar nominations have been released, I thought I might say my thoughts about who will win.
Best Picture - Lincoln is the obvious favourite. A movie about a president that most see as a hero will go well as the majority of those voting are americans. I haven´t sen it so I cant say if it is the best picture.
Argo? No, cant see that kind of movie win. Life of Pi is well done but not a kind of movie that wins an Oscar.
I would want Beasts of the southern wild to win. A movie with a lower budget, a great new young actress and a movie about something important. Obamas liked it, I like it too. 100/1 is huge but usually outsiders don´t win Oscar for best picture, even when they are worth it.
Best Director - Usually follows Best picture. But Spielberg is such a borig pick. I hope the Academy dares to go for a debutant; Benh Zeitlin, who made Beasts of the southern wild. 33/1 is worth a bet as his chances are bigger than the movie´s is.
Best Actor - Quite a boring category this time around. Will Lincoln make a grand slam? maybe but if Daniel Day-Lewis wins it is more becuse of the other nominees not being that good.'
Best Actress . Emanuelle Riva for Amour or Quvenzhane Willis for Beasts of the southern wild are most worthy and I hope the young Quvenzhane wins. Jennifer Lawrence was decent in Silver linings playbook, but not outstanding in any way, a bit flat IMO.
Best Original song - Skyfall 1/3? Are you joking? Bond themes never do well and this is a really weak song. pi´s lullaby at 20/1 is a great bet IMo end the best outsider chance of the Oscars.
Best Picture - Lincoln is the obvious favourite. A movie about a president that most see as a hero will go well as the majority of those voting are americans. I haven´t sen it so I cant say if it is the best picture.
Argo? No, cant see that kind of movie win. Life of Pi is well done but not a kind of movie that wins an Oscar.
I would want Beasts of the southern wild to win. A movie with a lower budget, a great new young actress and a movie about something important. Obamas liked it, I like it too. 100/1 is huge but usually outsiders don´t win Oscar for best picture, even when they are worth it.
Best Director - Usually follows Best picture. But Spielberg is such a borig pick. I hope the Academy dares to go for a debutant; Benh Zeitlin, who made Beasts of the southern wild. 33/1 is worth a bet as his chances are bigger than the movie´s is.
Best Actor - Quite a boring category this time around. Will Lincoln make a grand slam? maybe but if Daniel Day-Lewis wins it is more becuse of the other nominees not being that good.'
Best Actress . Emanuelle Riva for Amour or Quvenzhane Willis for Beasts of the southern wild are most worthy and I hope the young Quvenzhane wins. Jennifer Lawrence was decent in Silver linings playbook, but not outstanding in any way, a bit flat IMO.
Best Original song - Skyfall 1/3? Are you joking? Bond themes never do well and this is a really weak song. pi´s lullaby at 20/1 is a great bet IMo end the best outsider chance of the Oscars.
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