AFCON

African up of nations starts on saturday and here are my betting thoughts;


Group A:
Angola are really underestimated hee. They are a good african side and is my bet to win group at 7/1. But I also bet that they qualify as the price is so high.
South africa are favourites but I guess that is because they are hosts. They have a good chance of qualification and will fight it out with Moroco. But neither will go well later in the tournament.
Cape Verde may surprise the teams. A really small country where many great players have come from; Nani was born there, Patrick Vieira is a cape verdian born in Senegal. the problem is that the football has been poor in CV and players have found other countries to play for.


Group B:
A poor group and Ghana and Mali should qualify with ease. Ghana being better at the moment and should win the group at 8/15.


Group C:
This group is really interesting. Burkina Faso have deen underrated and I also think Zambia will be strong. This means that I think Nigeria will miss out. Nigeria have been good but I don´t think they ar good enough for this tournament.
Zambia 6/4 to win the group is really good. Also trying BF to qualify.
Ethiopia wont do much.


Group D:
Ivory coast should be the best team but are too big favourites to bet on. Tunisia is IMo stronger than Algeria and are the EW-bet in this group at 9/2.



First round betting:

South africa v Cape Verde  - CV+1 (13/10)
First game of AFCON and a home side will take on a team that they might underestimate. A dfraw is very possible but I think Cape verde can surprise.

Angola v Morocco  1 (2/1)  Angola DNB (13/8)
Most "experts" are sure that Angola will have no chance in this group, but some bookies have them 2nd favs. I think they could win the group and I am confident in that they are the price in this game. 2/1 to win and 13/8 DNB is too high. Best bet of the first round.

mali v Niger  - mali -1 (8/5)
mali should be a few goals better than Niger and 8/5 is too high for them to win -1.

Nigeria v Burkina Faso - 2(7/2), BF DNB (11/4)
Burkina faso are not a bad team at all and a re underrated. value bet.


More bets when Tournamet starts

Oscar

haven´t written here in a while but as the Oscar nominations have been released, I thought I might say my thoughts about who will win.


Best Picture - Lincoln is the obvious favourite. A movie about a president that most see as a hero will go well as the majority of those voting are americans. I haven´t sen it so I cant say if it is the best picture.
Argo? No, cant see that kind of movie win. Life of Pi is well done but not a kind of movie that wins an Oscar.
I would want Beasts of the southern wild to win. A movie with a lower budget, a great new young actress and a movie about something important. Obamas liked it, I like it too. 100/1 is huge but usually outsiders don´t win Oscar for best picture, even when they are worth it.

Best Director - Usually follows Best picture. But Spielberg is such a borig pick. I hope the Academy dares to go for a debutant; Benh Zeitlin, who made Beasts of the southern wild. 33/1 is worth a bet as his chances are bigger than the movie´s is.

Best Actor - Quite a boring category this time around. Will Lincoln make a grand slam? maybe but if Daniel Day-Lewis wins it is more becuse of the other nominees not being that good.'

Best Actress . Emanuelle Riva for Amour or Quvenzhane Willis for Beasts of the southern wild are most worthy and I hope the young Quvenzhane wins. Jennifer Lawrence was decent in Silver linings playbook, but not outstanding in any way, a bit flat IMO.

Best Original song - Skyfall 1/3? Are you joking? Bond themes never do well and this is a really weak song. pi´s lullaby at 20/1 is a great bet IMo end the best outsider chance of the Oscars.