Topptipset 27/9

Just for Swedish readers 

Topptipset idag är intressant och jag har ett förslag på 144 rader:

 1. Häcken - Helsingborg  1

Häcken spelar för guld och jag hoppas de vinner då jag spelade dem inför allsvenskan. De är i bra form och gör många mål. Här ska man vinna mot ett HIF som är ganska mediokra.

 2. Malmö - IFK göteborg   1X2

Här har MFF blivit för stora favoriter. Göteborg till under 15% är kanonbra. Alltid speciella matcher då dessa möts och här har jag feeling att IFK kan ta hem det hela. De rensar bra.

3. Halmstad - Öster  1X

Öster i princip klara för allsvenskan. HBK vill också tillbaka och känns som laget med mest motivation här. 1X räcker långt. 

4. Umeå - Trelleborg   1

TFF har haft en tuff säsong och den kommer fortsätta vara tuff eftersom de får stryk mot ett annat lag som slåss i botten. Umeå är bättre för dagen och hemma ska man slå TFF. Jag bankar då Umeå borde vara mer streckade.

5. Varberg - Hammarby  1X2

Helgarderar direkt. bajen ska vinna men är överstreckade. Varberg kan slå alla lag i superettan och i mina ögon är under 25% för lågt på dem. 

6. Siena - Bologna  1X

Mycket trolig hemmaseger. Men Siena är lite överstreckade. Ta med krysset för bättre värde. Bologna kan ni dock lämna därhän.

7. Thun  - Young Boys  1X

YB ska inte vara favoriter IMO. Tror de blivit så bara för att de sitter på närminnet hos folk efter matchen mot Liverpool förra veckan. Bra värde på 1X och det räcker.

 8. Bochum - Kaiserslautern  1X

Lite av en chansning men jag tycker även här att värdet ligger på 1X. Öppen 50-50 match och med 1X känner jag mig inte helt trygg, men finner det vara det bästa spelt. helgardera gärna.

 

System 144 rader

1

1X2

1X

1

1X2

1X

1X

1X                       

Weekend bets

malaga - Me gustas Malaga. Great price on Malaga in CL and they won, 3-0!!

Many favourite wins in CL, but Bate, Cluj and Anderlecht surprised a bit. My bets went great, but I am disappointed in English football. Once again.

Chelsea were 2-0 up but only managed a 2-2 draw. Bad!! Manchester C were 2-1 up against Real madrid, with just a few minutes left. And lost 2-3. Awful!! This loss will be the reason that man C won´t progress to the next stage of the CL. What?, you might say. They only lost away to Real Madrid, like most teams will do. Yes, but the way they lost will be in their mind all through the competition and the insecurity will arise in the team every game. The 3-2 goal for Real should not have happened. No one will trust the idiot defender who decided not to use his head, in any sense. Absolutely awful and that is the reason I bet against them in the PL this weekend. This will be on their minds a while.

 

I also think man C could struggle next time in the CL at home to Dortmund. If Real keep up the low standard they have at the moment, then even Ajax could beat them at home in the next round.

 Otherwise the interesting games in next round are Zenit v Milan, where Zenit have a great chance to win. Porto v PSG, in which we get to see if PSG are a team that are good enough for Europe. Cluj and Bate take on top opposition in Man Utd and Bayern. I will get back on these games in 2 weeks.

Now for the weekend.

I have already stated that I bet against man C. arsenal may have played away in Europe this week, but it was just in Montpellier and they should not be priced as they are here.

Liverpool have started poorly and played in Europe on Thursday. But I think they are underrated against Manchester U. These are the games that Liverpool usually perform better in nowadays. Good price on the home team. 

Other winners in England for me are Hammers at home to Sunderland and WBA against Reading.

In lower divisions I go for a Sheffield double and a win for Bournemouth, who are priced really good

In Spain there are some good bets to be found again.

Mallorca are still unbeaten and have won both home games. Now they take on Valencia, who have not impressed so far and had a tough game midweek. I think the compilers have looked at previous seasons here and not at current form. Good home winners.

 

Espanyol were unlucky last week when almost beating Bilbao. They are getting closer to the first win and I think it will come against Betis. Betis won away last week in a tight game and that is lucky for us as it has made Betis too big favourites here.

 

Atletico Madrid were really good on Thursday in Europa league and Valladolid should be an easy match. Low price but a banker win.

 

Also look for Getafe to win away against Celta at a really good price.

In Segunda I have 4 bets to recommend

Sabadell have great form with 3 straight wins (incl. the cup game) of which 2 were at home. This week they face Xerez at home. Xerez have been awful away from home and Sabadell is a tough place to go.

 Guadalajara are last with just 1 point. They face real Madrid Castilla this week and I don´t understand how this is priced up. Castilla have lost both away games and looked confused defensively last week and I think Guadalajara will take their first 3-pointer this weekend. 

Elche have won 5 of 5 games in the league and are looking really good. They have real fighting spirit and a few players that could fit in a top division side. Offcourse the first loss is coming closer, but against Huesca they have a good chance of winning again. Huesca might be high up in the ladder but they have taken points mainly against teams out of form or that will end in the lower regions. I saw Huesca against Murcia and they will have to improve a lot to beat Elche.

 Talking about Murcia, they are my last bet in Segunda. They play away to Numancia, a team that I really don´t like as they play very negative football IMO. Numancia have drawn 3 of 5 games and have not scored in the last 3 games. They will find it tough to do that against a Murcia side, who, when they play like in the second half last week, are strong defensively and quick in attacks. Good away price.

 I know not all of you find prices in Segunda B but there are bookies who offer it and usually some of the games come up inplay (atleast at William Hill). My thoughts this weekend.

Group A:

Alcala – good price for a home win against a poor away side, Fuenlabrada. Alcala have met really good teams when playing away and that is why they have a low league position. They should end mid-table.

Avilés and Rayo B are two home teams that should win in this group too.

Group B:

Alavés could be the most sure winners this week. They are playing really good and have won all 4 games without conceding a single goal. They face Noja this week, a team that is a class under Alavés and that will show.

Eibar have found great form and could continue a good spell away to a poor Barakaldo. Barakaldo will struggle all season and I think we´ll see them in tercera next year.

Athletic B and SD Logrones are two other teams to try bets on.

Group C:

Yeclano have had some problems coming in to the Segunda B stride as newcomers. But at home they are good and even though they play top team Olympic, I think they will win and the price is really good.

Atl. Baleares face Alcoyano, who really have continued their poor season in Segunda with an awful Segunda B-season start. Atl. Baleares is a team that should finish top 5 and here they will win without a problem.

Also look for hospitalet to win.

 Group D:

Cartagena, who played in Segunda last season (and the season before where close to a shot at qualifying to Primera) have a maximum 12 points after playing some really good football. On Sunday they play at home to Loja, a team that is much weaker and have lost both away games so far. Cartagena are too quick and have to many better players and are really strong home bankers.

Jaen have still to let a goal in. They have played really well so far and even though they play Albacete, a team I think could end really high in this group, thy must be a bet again.

Almeria B are also a good side that have started he season strong. They showed that they have a few really decent players when beating UCAM last week. This week they take on cacreño at home ,the team that jaen beat without even breaking a sweat last week. Look for a big win by 3 or more goals.

In this group I also like Arroyo and cadiz this week.

 

Interesting games in the Futsal in Spain this weekend. All top tipped teams play away. Inter have the toughest game and could lose. Barcelona face a team they should beat and Murcia meet a team they will win against even with their eyes close. Maybe the first big win of the season.

I see that WH have prices on Futsal. 4/1 on Manacor is worth a shot and Murcia are a banker.

 

In Sweden it is really exciting with 8 rounds left. At the start of the season Elfsborg looked like certain league winners. I recommended bets on Häcken pre season. I hope someone followed as they now are second, just 2 points behind Elfsborg. On the same point as häcken we also find AIK and Malmö. Of these teams Häcken play the best football Imo and they score most goals of all teams in allsvenskan. 5 so far (after 22 games) while elfsborg and Malmö have scored 37 each and AIK only 30. Häcken are +23 in goaldifference, next best in Allsvenskan are elfsborg with +15.

This weekend I have bets on;

Häcken and Norrköping

 

My trebles:

Banker

Atletico Madrid

Sabadell

WBA

4/1 (4,89)

 

Medium treble

Mallorca

Hercules

Guadalajara

18/1 (18,76)

 

Chance

Espanyol
Murcia
Arsenal
71/1 (72,00)

 

sevilla topped of a super week

Before talking about bets I must say something about a thing that bugs me more and more. In Spain and Italy the referees too often give goalkeepers freekicks when a player clashes with them. This happened atleast twice in the segunda this weekend (in the games I saw anyway). An attacker slides in the penalty area and hits the ball. The goalkeeper and the player then clashes as the player either slides into him och the goalkeeper also is sliding. In the Murcia game it was ridiculous. A Murcia player slid in the penalty area and struck the ball. the goalkeeper was half a second late and collided with the player. this shouldn´t have been a freekick, but only did the goalkeeper get that, the Murcia player got a yellow card.

The referees are ruining football by giving the goalkeepers to many favours. take it from someone who, without fouling, broke the same keeper´s nose twice in one season and got another keeper to fall and break his arm, during his spell as a player.

 

Some great bets this weekend. Sevilla won and 4/1 (5,00) on them really helped to make last week a really profitable one. Real are having problems and are playing really dull.

Otherwise my favourite teams this seson, Elche and Almeria both won in segunda. Murcia just got a draw but dominated in the second half after being 0-2 down at halftime and they should have had a penalty.

Espanyol were really close to beating Bilbao and Mallorca managed a draw but not more.

 In France Zlatan scored again and in England Chelsea and man c lost points and Liverpool once again failed to win. Will they win a game before X-mas? Me think not.

 Quite a lot of winning bets again on the blog, even if my trebles all missed.

  European football this week, will get back to that later on. First a look at the upcoming weekend.

Mallorca v Valencia is the game of the weekend and the way the teams are playing than the home team must be the bet. Real go to vallecano, surely they must win that game? Malaga go to Bilbao. i hope for a good price there.

 

In Segunda there seems to be the possibility of many away wins, so be sure that there will be upsets. No clear ideas there this week. Will await the prices before thinking about bets in Segunda.

 

In Segunda B, Cartagena won again. Hopefully they will be back up in Segunda next season.

 

In Futsal, all favourites won. .El Pozo Murcia won 2-1 after playing really bad. But as I suppose they and Barcelona once again will pull clear from all other teams, winning against lower teams will be necessary. Barcelona also just won by a goal so neither team of the favourites impressed in the first round.

 

 

Quick CL bets:

Manchester C +1 – There is something wrong with Real Madrid. Will this be the season where we see Mourinho being sacked? They are not playing well and Ronaldo often looks like he wants to be elsewhere. Maybe in City as some rumours say? Manchester C will go for a draw here and I think they will succeed with that.

 

PSG – time for zlatan and co to show why they are paid their high wages. Kiev should be an easy task for PSG if they play to their full potential.

 

Chelsea – What a game. Juventus are playing good and are really hard to beat. But Chelsea has looked good in PL so far. Forget the 0-0 against QPR. Maybe their minds were on this game?! Good price on a team that usually wins at home in europe.

 

Bayern – Valencia have not played as well as I had hoped this season. They are hard to score against but Valencia have shown that they have problems scoring too. Bayern are maybe the best team in Europe and will win here.

 

Malaga – Great form and will beat Zenit by a few goals if playing like they do in Primera. Only worry with Malaga is that a good run in CL might hamper them in the league.

weekend bets

I had some great ideas midweek but were really unlucky with my trebles. First I just have to say that Jaén won 2-0. This was one of the better bets I have had in a long time and 11/10 (2,10) really was the bet of the week, as I wrote on twitter. On twitter I had a tuessday treble with Almeria, Alcorcon and England. But as usual England are crap when they should win a game and they let me down (not only me I expect). On my banker treble Alaves and Jaen won, but cadiz missed and my chance treble was really close. Sporting and Eibar won but Albacete just got a draw (and lost on penalties).

 

Cordoba beat Elche, as I predicted, while racing and Sporting both won and maybe they will carry that in to the Segunda games this weekend!? Ponferradina surprised hugely against Villarreal. After losing 0-1 at home in the Segunda in the weekend, they won 2-0 away at Villarreal last night.

 

I just have to repeat what I wrote on Tuesday; “Jaén are my bankers in the cup this week….. SUPERODDS  on them!!”

 

But now it is time for the weekend betting. I will start in Primera and the big game of the weekend.

Sevilla are overpriced against a Real Madrid side, who have not looked really good so far and has Ronaldo, who obviously has some problems. Maybe the rumours in Spain is true and he will leave Real and join Manchester C in January or next summer? Sevilla have started the season ok with a win in the only home game (against Getafe) and two away draws. They have a chance of a top 4 position this season, fighting against Valencia and Malaga (if I guess correctly). Real only drew at home to Valencia and then lost away to Getafe before winning their first game of the season at home to Granada. They are vulnerable at the start of the season and if Sevilla dare to go for it, they can win. At 4/1 (5,00) they are worth a shot anyway and I will also try the +1 handicap at a good price.

 

Mallorca is my pet team so far this season. They have looked good defensively and have a few really good players in attack. This week they face Osasuna, An osasuna side that have stated really poor. OK they got a decent result against Barcelona at home, but they are without points so far and have a 1-6 goaldifference. Mallorca should not be priced over 6/4 (2,50) IMO but are found at 23/10 (3,30) a really god price and a definite bet.

 

Malaga and atletico Madrid should win their games without problems. Malaga face Levante, a team that won´t repeat last seasons 6^th place. They have not been playing well so far and almost lost points at home to Espanyol last week.

Espanyol are still without points but have been close to their opponents losing all 3 games by just 1 goal. Now they play at home to Bilbao, who are overrated in the betting. They have started poorly.

 In Segunda I believe that Real Madrid Castilla once again are a home banker. They face Sabadell who beat Almeria 3-0 last weekend and Hercules 2-0 on Wednesday. But those games were both at home. Castilla should be too good for them when playing at home.

 

Almeria are IMO the most sure winners in Segunda, but are also priced too low. They face Guadalajara at home. Guadalajara started the season with a 1-1 draw at Alcorcon, but have lost all 3 games since then and will be a team that are relegated. Almeria bounced back from their big loss at Sabadell by bearing Murcia 2-0 in the cup. OK, they were a bit lucky as Murcia was the better team until a defender handed the ball to a Almeria attacker in a stupid way and gave away the 1-0 goal. Here Almeria will win, but are priced a bit low.

 

Elche lost in the cup away to Cordoba but are 100% in the league and how can they not win again as they face Sporting at home? Sporting beat Girona yesterday in the cup but in the league they have been poor.
 

Villarreal v Hercules is an interesting game. I have a feeling that Hercules could spring an upset here. I am disregarding both teams performances midweek in the cup and just look at their league form. Villarreal are unbeaten after 3 wins and a draw, while Hercules last week got their first points when beating Girona. But Hercules have been really unlucky in all games so far, they have sometimes been better than their opponents but have not had the ability to score. Now I think they will climb in the ladder and could win here against a too low priced villarreal.

Murcia should have no trouble beating newcomers Mirandés at home. Murcia were really good away to Almeria in the cup even though they lost. Racing should take their first 3-pointer at home to Recreativo and  Alcorcon could beat Cordoba at home, as Cordoba have had two really tough games the last week.

 

In segunda B I once again must go for Cartagena, who play away  to Sanluqueno, who lost in te cup, as expected.

I also like the prices on Sevilla Atl. and Orihuela this week.

In group 2 I think that Eibar are home bankers while Tenerife sHould win at home in Group A.

 

Banker treble:

Almeria

Castilla

Malaga

2,2/1 (3,21)

 

Medium treble:

Murcia
Elche
Racing

17/2 (9,45)

 

Chance:

Hercules

Mallorca

Sevilla

70/1 (71,45)

 

 

In sweden try bets on

Norrköping, Göteborg and åtvidaberg in allsvenskan.

Hammrby in Superettan

Frej and enkoping in div 1 N

Copa del Rey and more

Some great football the last couple of days even though the top leagues rested. In Segunda, elche showed how good they are when beating Cordoba at home. Elche must really be counted as one of the huge favourites for promotion. They once again play at Cordoba midweek in the Copa del rey. I am not betting on that game but surely Cordoba should be the bet there. Elches focus is 100% on Segunda.

If you follow me on twitter you must have won a bunch on saturday when I more and more got a feel for Hercules and named them the bet of the day and also recommended a double with Castilla. Both won and great money was to be won too :)

 

Almeria lost for the first time. Travelling to Sabadell is never easy and Almeria came back to earth with a 0-3 thumping.

Real Murcia were good away to Recreativo, but once again got a player sent off in an away game. Not good if they want to be promotion contenders. They were worth a point though but lost 2-3.

Villareal keeps on showing that they are a team that really should be in Primera division. And they should surely be promoted, if they keep playing as good as they have done so far.

Racing was worth a win and looked really good at times away to Huesca. Even though their 1-0 goal was due to really poor defending and lousy goalkeeping, they had control of the game and should have scored a few anyway. Better luck next week

 

At the bottom I give you all my thoughts in the midweek Copa del Rey games, but first some thoughts ahead of the weekend.

 

Real Madrid Castilla, who were good against Xerez, take on Sabadell at home. Sabadell had a great victory this week but should find the trip to Castilla too tough.

Almeria take on Guadalajara at home and should be back on a new winning streak. Guadalajara will surely be relegated this season, if nothing happens. Really poor side in attack.

Villareal v Hercules is the game of the round for me. Villareal are really good but hercules finally won on saturday evening and won in a really good way against Girona. They hav had loads of misfortune in the games prior to that and they will climb in the ladder. Should be a great price on them as Villareal surely must be odds on here. In that case get on hercules. They are a team for the top part of the Segunda.

Elche should continue winning as they take on Sporting, who fail to impress week after week.

Murcia seem to be candidates for home banker of the week as they face newcomers Mirandés on Nueva Condomina.

 In Primera division Malaga and Valencia seem to be bankers at home. sevilla could upset Real Madrid while Mallorca and Deportivo could grab points away from home.

 My banker treble last week was let down by Blades after an early red card. But I got 3 of 4 right in Segunda B, and Reus were close at a great price. Cartagena continued to win, should have a great chance next week too. Especially as they meet Sanluqueño. OK, it is an away game but there should be a difference in class.  

Oh, by the way; El Pozo Murcia won the supercup in Futsal. Will follow the league this season with focus on Murcia, the champions, and will write about them on the blog. They start at home, as do Barcelona and Inter (who they beat in the supercup final).

My Cup thoughts. First I have to say that it is tough comparing teams from different segunda B groups, but I notice that the bookies think so too J

Almeria should beat Murcia. Almeria are really good this season and Murcia might rest a few players.

Alcorcón seems like a great bet at home to Numancia. They have been really good and winning 3-1 at Las Palmas in the weekend must have given them confidence to beat Numancia, who alwys seem to go for 0-0 when playing away.

Former Primera team Tenerife have started the season in segunda B really well winning all 3 games so far. They travel to Alcoyano, who was relegated from Segunda last season and have started their season awfully. OK price on the away team.

Jaén are my bankers in the cup this week. They have yet to conced a goal in the Segunda B and are really strong at home. Caudal are a mediocre team in a weaker Segunda B group. SUPERODDS  on them!!

 

Another home banker and a team that hasn´t conceded a goal in the league so far is Alaves, who played a UEFA-cup final against Liverpool not too long ago. They now play in Segunda B group 2 and have 9 points after 3 games and 6-0 in goal difference. They now face Sanluqueño at home (the same team that Cartagena meet next weekend) and will win easily.

A third home banker in a row is cadiz. They are really strong at home and now face Arroyo, who has started the season better than I thought, but here they should have no chance.

L´hospitalet and Villarreal should also win at home.

Away bets at good prices are Albacete, who are a really good side and could win at Hurracan, Racing, who with some more luck should beat a poor Lugo, and Eibar, who are over priced at lleida, not much difference between the two teams.

 

I have put together 3 trebles in CdR

Banker:                                                                                                       

Jaén
Cadiz
Alaves
11/4 (3,72)

 

Midpriced:

Tenerife

Alcorcon

Hospitalet
4/1 (4,97)

 

Chance:

Racing
Eibar
Albacete
19/1 (19,80)

 

weekend bets

So, a weekend without the top leagues. Excellent! Now i can fully concentrate on Segunda and Segunda B. My favourite leagues, together with the Tercera but we too seldom get pre match prices on those, unfortunately. 

This week I have 4 bets in Segunda and 4 Segunda B bets.

 

Cordoba

I love what Elche has done so far and they play really well. But Cordoba are not a bad side, especially at home and they are priced too high here.

 Hercules

Hercules have been playing well but not they have not had luck enough in the games to get any points. Girona have started good but should lose here.

Real Madrid Castilla

I am not a fan of Real madrids 2^nd side, mainly because they all through last season got huge favours from referees in Segunda B. It was almost as there was a decision that Real B-side should reach segunda and the C-side should get into Segunda B. They were not worth the place in Segunda, but now they are here. And already we see that the mighty Real Madrid scares referees and RM Castilla have got some soft decisions for them. But there also are a few good players in the team and as Xerez have been bad and will struggle this season, then Castilla should win at a good price.

 

Guadalajara

Guadalajara have just got 1 point so far but that only gives us a higher price here. Barcelona B are often overrated by bookies. They had a poor start to last season and there is no surprise that they only have one win so far this season. They are rarely worth bets on away soil, especially when the prices are this low.

 

Other bets could be Murcia, Racing and Almeria. Almeria have been really good but the price is a bit low as they have a tricky away game to Sabadell.

 

In Segunda B I have bets in 3 groups.

Group 1:
Aviles
Aviles have started well and now play at home to Fuenlabrada, a team that we will find close o the bottom of the group when the seasonends. The price on the home side is higher than I had thought.

 Group 3

Reus deportivo
Reus are one of the best team in the group IMO. They have played good so far and are unlucky not to have points in both games. Sant andreu are not bad either but the prices seem to have been set after their start of the season which has given 4 points in 2 games. They are not a team for the real top and will not win here. One of the better bets this weekend IMO. Wrong favs here.
 

Yeclano

Yeclano are new and have found it a bit tough in segunda B, but Conatancia have been bad so far playing two 0-0 games. Yeclano should be bigger favourites here as they are better than the start of the season has shown.

 

Cartagena

Two great wins so far and they will continue winning. Here they are the banker of the weekend. Will win with a few goals.

 

My trebles

Banker:

Cartagena
Castilla
Sheffield U

9/2 (5,40)

 

Medium banker:

Hercules

Mirandes

Cordoba

8/1 (9,02)

 

Chance

Reus

Aviles

Guadalajara

20/1 (21,00)