05 oktober 2012

Weekend bets

Interesting week that showed that the gap between the best in Europe and the rest is getting too big and is killing football. Champions League will continue to make the rich richer and in the end that will be what killed football. I believe that in 20 years time, football will not be the biggest sport on the planet and that the money will be found elsewhere.
It is just like Rugby in Sweden. The two big teams (of which my hometown team is one) can good enough to be better than 99% of the swedish players. This has resulted in only those two teams ever being good enough to chalenge for the title. according to some players in other teams, it has also resulted in players (sometimes good) that has quit the sport as there is no fun playing in teams that are without any chance of winning anything. Rugby in Sweden is a really small sport and will never be big, but if this continues it will die out completely.

But.. this is just my guess and my views. As long as there are good bets to be made I don´t care what happens to football. Football has become boring to watch, especially on top level. This is why I love to watch Segunda football 8even though the referees are bad) and football from Iceland. I love the way they play in Iceland and the women´s games are awesome to watch.
 Oh... by the way... Liverpool still sucks. Kick the manager and appoint Basil brush or Björne (see... references to both british and swedish children´s TV). Or start selling all players and begin preparing for life in The Championship. But I am sure Liverpool would struggle there as well the way they are playing at the moment.

Now... for the weekend... In spain the Classico is the big one and that is one game I will bet in.

But I will start in England. Best bet on the English card is West brom to beat QPR. QPR are really worthless and should have been relegated last season, but... they got another year in the Premiership but will be leaving in may. Trust me on that. WBA are overpriced at evens (2.00) or more.

Everton are also a good bet at about the same price. They face Wigan away from home and Wigan is a team I believe will follow QPR to the championship when the season is over.

Arsenal should beat Hammers in the London derby. Arsenal played in CL at home to Olympiakos on wednesday, but that shouldn´t affect this game at all. Good price on Arsenal at just under evens.

In Sweden the title chace is coming to an end. Elfsborg have a lim lead and looking at the last rounds they should grab it. But any slip ups could hand the trophy to AIK or Häcken.
This week I think that Norrköping are priced really high at Malmö and Örebro will have a good shot at clsong the gap in the bottom by beating Sundsvall.


Now to Spain and the Classico.

Real madrid must be the bet in this game. Over 3/1 (4,00) is ridiculous now that Ronaldo have been feeling a bit less cry-babyish. I actually have so much faith in Real that I have put them down as value bet of the weekend. 3-1 will be what they win by.

Malaga is another hugely overpriced team this week. OK, they face Atletico Madrid, who ar eplaying really well in the league, but 3/1 and more on malaga is too high. Have you seen how they play? Malaga have been underrated all season even though they play the best football in Spain at the moment.

Valladolid will look at another big win, now that they face Espanyol. I had hopes in Espanyol the last couple of weeks but they look extremely poor this season and Valladolid are a great bet.

Valencia face Levante in a local derby and  must be the bet. They create chances but have been poor scoring on them and their defence looked awful when losing to Mallorca the other week. Levante played in EL on thursday and they have not impressed me at all this season in the league.

mallorca are bankers for me against Granada. Granada have yet to score on away soil this season, but they are a bit excused as they have played at both Barcelona and Real Madrid. Mallorca have won all their home games and last week they lost their first game of the season,  at Getafe, and will start a new unbeaten run here. Mallorca should not be priced over 1/2 (1,50), but they are :)


In Segunda there are a few interesting agmes and I have 3 bets.

Murcia were really good last week when beating Xerez 3-0 away. now they play at home against Racing, who were poor against Numancia last week.

Xerex have 0-6 in their last two games and are looking really really poor. They now travel to Guadalajara, who after grabbing a point at Alcorcon in the first game, have lost six in a row. But in some games they have been close and even worth a win. I believe their first 3 pointer this season will come here, at home to a dismal Xerex.

No team has so far this season scored at Numancia. This week Lugo will try to change that. I don´t think they will succeed but even if they do, Numancia will score more and win. Not that Numancia usually score more than a maximum of 1 goal in  a game... But their price is goo enough for me to bet on them.


Banker treble:
Murcia
Mallorca
WBA


Midpriced treble:
Numancia
valencia
Everton

Chance treble:
Malaga
Real Madrid


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