Swedish thoughts - Sunday 6 may

Even though my bets are going really well, I have been a bit unlucky lately. Especially with the Kalmar game where Gais equalised in the 91st niunte :(

This posting will be a bit longer than usual as I have looked at other Nordic and Scandinavian leagues too. This mainly due to the fact that the "best" league in the world, Icland´s Urvalsdeild, starts today.

First though I will wite something abou spanish football (yes, multinational today). It has been a dark season for my beloved Murcia, with most teams goaing poor. Cartagens will most likely be relegated from Segunda as they have 10 points to safety. after a really good start to the season, Real Murcia have been poor this year but still may fix another season in Segunda.
In the Segunda B group 4 (where the teams from Murcia play) The two teams from the Region play an important game today. la Union and Lorca might both be relegated and today´s game is really important. I love the small town of La Union, but Lorca is a place I have close to my heart. And after the earthquakes that ruined much of this beautiful town I really hope they will stay in Segunda B. The town needs it.
In Tercera Grp 13 there offcourse are Murcia teams going well, s it is the Murcia group :). But I am happy "my" Mar Menor team are in the qualifications for promotion. Would be lovely with Segunda football at Pitin :)

BUT.. not all is bad in Murcian football. We still hve Futsal. El Pozo Murcia lead the top division, 2 points ahead of Barcelona with 1 round left. Murcia travel tomarfil inthe last round (a barcelona team) while Barcelona travel to Reale cartagena from Murcia :) Exciting. I just know that Cartagena, who are relegated, has said they will play for El Pozo Murcia and try to beat Barcelona. I hope El Pozo will win too, so they make sure they become champions. Exciting last round anyway.


OK... you want tips. Well, I will start in Norway as one of the bets of the day is found in Tippligaen.

Haugesund v Lilleström
haugesund have started the season really good. Just 1 loss in 6 games and they have won both homegames. Lilleström have taken just 1 point in 3 awaygames and just 3 points total in all 6 games thi s season: Lilleström have many players out injured. Probably they also will be without first choice keeper Ramovic and English attacker Luke Rodgers (ex. Nott co, Shrewsbury etc.)
Haugesund will continue their good start to the season and should win by a few goals. 8/13 (1,61) is a bankerbet today!!

Now to Sweden

Allsvenskan:
Norrköping v Syrianska
Bankerbet in Sweden. Norrköping have played really well in their last two games, beating malmö and Gefle. At home they are 2-1-0 and against the weakest team in Allsvenskan they will win again. Syrianska has IMo the worst defence and with players being out injured they are even poorer in the back. Norrköping are 6/10 (1,60) and that is really good IMO. Why not also try a hadicap bet?!

malmö v Åtvidaberg
Åtvidaberg have really some doen to earth after their great start. 4 straight losses with a total of 2-9 in goals. malmö are really up and down but have played better at home. Here they are too big favourites but with Åtvidaberg being really weak at the moment I think Malmö will win by 2-3 goals and -1 at 5/6 (1,83) is a bet for me here.

Superettan:
Hammarby v varberg
Hammarby have won all 4 games so far. A bit better than expected, but they are real contenders for promotion. Varberg are new in Superettan and have done it really well with 2 wins and onegoal losses in the other 2 games. varberg have shown that they have no respect for the better known teams and I think the price on them is too high today. We can have an upset here. 4/1 (5,00) is too high. Hammarby won´t go unbeaten this season, not even at home and I go with my feeling here. Small bets only and maybe a handicap bet too is recommended.

Falkenberg v Värnamo
Faölkenberg are a disapointment. many tipped them to come top 6-8 but they have just 1 point in 4 games. Their opponents, Värnamo, also have just 1 point so far. But värnamo are a weaker team IMo and I think Falkenberg´s first win will come. 4/5 (1,83) is worth a bet for me as falkenberg will hit form soon.

Brommapojkarna at 5/4 could be a bet too today, but I will wait for inplay live betting on that game.


Div 1.
oddevold and Luleå are bets in Div 1 today. Oddevold were favourites to win Div 1 south this season and away to a weak Qviding they should win and prices over evens are betable.
Luleå have started poor but meet even poorer Akropolis. Luleå have met the teams that were top 3 ahead of this round, 3 teams that all will fight for promotion. Now they meet a really poor team and could be found at around 5/4. That is really good!



Now over to the first round of urvalsdeild in Iceland. Remember that this is the first round and keep stakes low.

My bets are:
KR - Champions last season and winners of the preseason league cup. Best team in Iceland and they should win against Stjarnan, even though Stjarnan also had a good preseason. Last season both games between these teams finished 1-1 but KR look even stronger this season and 4/7 (1,57)is a bet for me.

Breidablik - Finished 6th last season and take on newcomers IA in the first round. Breidablik were good in the leaguecup losing to KR in the semifinal. I don´t know much about IA but them beingso big favourotes is wrong IMO. 9/5 (2,80) on Breidablik is the bet here.

Fylkir - had a bad season last year but I think they are better this year. Keflavik is a team they beat twice last season. All 4 games between these teams has ended 2-1, despite who won. And this will be a close game too. 5/4 (2,25) on Fylkir is a bet, but best might be to wait inplay anyway.

FH - 2nd last season and a really good Icelandic team take on Grindavik who were really lucky to miss relegation as Thor had real bad luck in the last weeks of the season. FH won 7-2 against Grindavik last season. maybe not as many goals today but instead of going for the low price on them to win, try -1, -2 or FH to win and over 2,5 goals. All are at good prices.


No bet in the last of todays games in Iceland

AND... remember one thing in Iceland: There are not as many goals as some people think. 41 of 121 games (bit more than a third) were over 3,5 goals. Many, Yes, but not as many as some punters think.



Almost missed my Bet in Finland. Valuebet of the day
HJK v Inter
inter ahve started really well with a maximum 12 points. 10-0 in goaldiference in these 4 games is really strong. HJK are champions but not as good this season as last. They have lost 2 games so far and are not playing that great. They will find it hard to score on Intr, who have one of the best goalkeepers anda really well disciplined defence. 4/1 (5,00) is WAY TO HIGH on Inter here!! Value bet of the day!!