Weekend bets

Quite a few interesting bets this weekend, especially in Spain. I am laying most focus on spain now in the beginning of the seasons as I watch some games from their leagues every week. And because PL is too over analyzed (and quite boring).

 

But I will start with something bigger, the CL group stage. Here are some thoughts from me.

 

Group A:

PSG with Zlatan and more good players must have a great chance here. Them and Kiev are my bets here. I don´t believe in Porto at all and Zagreb are too weak.

 

Group B:

Not so easy for Arsenal as it might seem at first glance. Schalke are not a bad team and Olympiakos will be hard to beat. Montpellier should find the others too tough but might steal a point here and there which could decide the fate for the 3 other teams.

 

Group C:

Milann and Malaga should go hrough easily. Zenit might be close but Anderlecht will find this group too hard and might finish on 0 points. Malaga is my bet to win the group.

 

Group D:

What agroup. Real Madrid should go through but Man C, Dortmund and Ajax could all beat them at home and this will be a tight group. Look for Dortmund to go through.

 

Group E:

Chelsea and Juve without a doubt. Nordsjaelland have done it great to get this far and with two big teams in the group they will give their fans some great games, but won´t get many points at all. Shaktar is weak too IMO.

 

group F:

Equally easy to predict the teams going though. bayern and Valencia are way too strong for Lille and bate.

 

group G:

barcelona are one of the luckier teams when it comes to CL draws and benfica, Celtic and Spartak moscow are a lucky draw again for the spanish side. benfica should clinch 2nd spot, but Spartak might upset and take it from them.

 

Group H:

One team is usually luckier than Barcelona and they play here. man Utd always get an easy group draw and they should win the group easily as Cluj, Braga and gala all are crap sides (compared to ther sides in the draw. If Man Utd had been drawn in any other gruoup they would not have won it. If they don´t win this they are useless.

 

 

OK, My weekend thoughts. Starting with Primera division:

valencia are a chance bet at the huge prices offered. OK, barcelona are better but they lost the supercup midweek and have not impressed so far. valencia could grab a point here and +1 is my major bet, but even +2 is at good value.

 

Mallorca are a side I like so far. They were good away to Malaga and now play at home to Sociedad, who really have played poor so far.

 

Deportivo are great newcomers who have impressed me. A great draw in Valenca last week and now they meet Getafe, who will be overrated after beating Real last week.

 

levante and valladolid are two other possible bets. Levante face Espanyol and they have been awful so far and so has Bilbao who play at home to Valladolid, who have won both games. No way Valladolid should be priced so high!

 

 

In segunda I have many possible bets but give you my favourite ones:

Almeria - keep following them until they lose. Great so far and now face real Madrid Castilla, who have proven to be not so good. But Real madrid castilla are overrated by bookies so we get great prices on almeria.

 

murcia were really good last week, when beating Gijon even though they had a player sent off. This week they play at home to Huesca, who didn´t look good at home to Numancia last week. Over evens is really good on Murcia.

 

xerez played well against Almeria last week and should easily beat Mirandés, who have struggled a lot as newcomers in Segunda so far.

 

Elche take on Las Palmas at home. Elche played well in the derby against Hercules last week and even though las Palmas were good away in the first round,they were bad against lugo and will struggle here.

 

Other bets could be hercules, who are overpriced at alcorcon, Villareal (should win big against Guadalajara) and Girona. But Girona ytake on Ponferradina and maybe Girona are a bit underpriced thanks to the huge win last week.

 

Five possible bets in Segunda B:

Reus D

St Andreu

cartagena

Cadiz

albacete

Especially the last two are worth bets!

 

If you get to bet on Tercera group 13, these 2 teams will win on the first weekend.

Mar Menor (should beat Bullense by a lot)

La Hoya (Totana are too weak)

 

My trebles:

banker treble

Albacete

xerez

Villareal

7/2 /(4,61)

 

 

Almost banker:

Almeria

mallorca

Elche

13/2 (7,81)

 

 

Chance:

WBA

Valladolid

hercules

36/1 (36,91)

 

GOOD LUCK!!

swansea and real

What´s up with Swansea and Real Madrid? Swansea have won both their games this season in great style, but they haven´t met any really good team though. Interesting start for them anyway and interesting start for West brom too. Two great results against two really tough opponents.

In the Championship I am starting to believe that Blackburn could make a quick return to the Premier League. But as usual, the Championship and Leagues 1 and 2 will spring many surprises.

 

Biggest surprise so far in Europe is that Real madrid only has 1 point after their first 2 games. They will offcourse start winning soon, but the gap to Barcelona will grow. Barcelona by the way, did not impress against Osasuna this weekend. If teams try to play against them (as Sociedad fail to do) then the other teams will see that Barsa aren´t unbeatable.

Deportivo, who met Valencia on sunday, are impressing me, even though they played in Segunda last season. Mallorca played well against malaga and are a team to follow a while. So are Atletico Madrid, who smashed Bilbao last night. Bilbao are really crap and I think they will lose to HJK midweek.

Next weekend, Bilbao host Valladolid, who have won both games so far and here they could be a bet. Deportivo is another possible bet. Getafe might get too much interest from punters after beating Real, so I hope for good Depor-prices.

 

In Segunda I was impressed by Almeria and Murcia this weekend. Almeria are playing really nice football and Murcia were the much better team against Gijon, even though they were a man down.

In the summer derby I also liked what I saw of Elche, another team to follow a while.

This weekend Almeria must be a bet again. They take on Real Madrid castilla at home. Castilla beat Barsa B but once again were lucky to have a referee who seems to be a real Real fan. Murcia, Villareal and Elche should also be considered as bets.

 

I had a few winners again and I am starting to feel more confident in the spanish betting. Premier league, on the other hand, is not a market I will spend oo much time chasing bets in. My bankertreble at 9/2 was a winning bet J

 

AND... Cartagena won their first game in Segunda B . GREAT!

Best bets

 

I was in a hurry yesterday when writing on the blog. So to make it clearer which bets I like the most I have put together 3 trebles if someone wants to follow. Offcourse I have bet on all games in different ways too, but this is just for fun and for your sake.

 

The banker treble:

Atletico madrid

Almeria

Fiorentina

9/2 (5,57)

 

 

The medium safe treble

Sevilla

Cartagena

Villareal

8/1 (9,10)

 

 

The chance treble

West Ham

Elche

Häcken

34/1  (35,70)

 

 

Good luck

 

 

weekend bets

Time for the second week in England and Spain and first week in Germany and Italy. Interesting times up ahead. I have bets in all these leagues and in Sweden this weekend.

SPAIN:

La Liga

 

Malaga v Mallorca

Both teams won their first game, both with late goals. I have high hopes for Malaga this season, ad tey have a good squad. but I was more impressed with how Mallorca played against Espanyol. OK, that was home and travelling to Malaga is never easy. But look at the price on Mallorca. My bet here is Mallorca +1.

 At. Madrid v Bilbao

Crisis in Bilbao after losing the first game and with the squad. At. Madrid were not really good against Levante, but against bibao with all their troubles they should win comfortably.

 

sociedad v Celta

Sociedad didn´t care against barcelona and lost big. Or are they that poor? I am not sure and feel they have become to big favourites here. Celta almost held Malaga to a goalless draw and could surprise here. +1 is a bet at a good price.

 

Other possible bets are Betis and Sevilla

 

Segunda

I have the following bets this weekend;

Elche, las Palmas, Villareal, Almeria

 

Other leagues in Spain

Try Yeclano, Mallorca B, cartagena and Lucena in Segunda B

  

Premier League

Hammers and arsenal are my double this weekend. Great prices on both.

  

Italy

Viola are too high. Bet on them!!

  

Germany

I think hamburg should be under evens. But they are not. Great.

 

Sweden is interesting this week. I have gone for Häcken, Djurgården and Göteborg

some thoughts

Interesting start to the seasons in Spain and England. A few big favourites winning as planned, while som really bombed. Liverpool showed once again why they won´t be a team for the fans to be joyful about this season either. Even a man down they shouldnt lose 0-3 at WBA, useless team and the season is already over for Liverpool fans.

Two games ended 5-0 in the PL. Not too common and most interesting is that QPR, who are one of my relegation teams, lost at home to Swansea by that result. The start of a really poor season for QPR is my guess. Best thing in England was Everton´s win. Not only did man Utd lose but it made me money.

In Spain, Real drew 1-1 at home to Valencia in a really dull game. Valencia are really interested in challenging the top 2 teams this season and couldn´t have asked for a better start. They should actually have won as they had a goal wrongly disallowed, so this must have been really good for the Valenciano confidence. barcelona won big but IMO they met a team that had given up before the game started. They didn´t care and probably consider next week the start of the season for them. Bilbao lost 3-5 to Betis. A shock result, but Betis played really well and scored some great goals. But Bilbao´s defence was awful though.

I have a feeling that Malaga will go well this season and they started with an awaywin to Celta and next week they play at home to another team that played well in the first round, Mallorca. The most interesting game of the next round IMO.

In segunda Barcelona B lost 4-5 at home to Almeria and they did not play well. Real Madrid Castilla were even worse when losing to Villareal. My thoughts on them heaving a tough season might become true, even though they got a penalty in this game.

Elche and Xerez won in good ways and both have tough games next week as Elche play a derby against Alicante-based Hercules and Xerez travel to Almeria. las Palmas and Lugo both won and they meet each other next time, an interesting game, especially as Las palmas were really good away to Racing.

But the game of the round next time is offcourse the minor classico when Real Madrid castilla take on barcelona B.

Now Segunda B starts too with my Cartagena trying to get back to Segunda. Last season they were really poor but the season before they were in a promotion spot in Segunda all of the first half of the season. They are too good for Segunda B and I have hopes for s good season. In Tercera I one agian will support Mar Menor as they are from San Javier.

Also this week the leagues in Italy and Germany start. Not any leagues I can claim to have much knowledge in. But I have followed a bet that I think Pete from william Hill inplay radio put up. No, not in Germany, that usually is the league he is awesome in, but in Italy. I think I heard him talk about Viola winning Serie A and looking at the prices I had a bet on that.

I was a bit unlucky with some bets this weekend but still had a good weekend.

Everton, Newcastle, Deportivo, Villareal, Malaga all won.

Will be back in a few days with new bets

weekend tips

First rounds in spain and premier League this weekend. As with all first rounds in leagues the bets must be lower than usual. But offcourse I have some ideas in Primera, Segunda and PL.

PL:

Newcastle

I have a feeling that Spurs will have a tougher season this time. Not only because of Redknapp leaving but they don´t feel as good IMO. Newcastle on the other hand I think could finish quite high and thye are a good bet.

Norwich

I like Norwich and have some hopes for them having a good season. Fulham usually are decent at home but when Norwich are pricedlike they are they must be the bet here.

Reading

Stoke were really poor away last season and I have bet on Stoke to be relegated this season. Reading won promotion last season and as there always is one newcomer that starts the season surprisingly good and Reading could be that team this time.

Everton

OK, Man Utd are better but Everton, but they are are too big favourites here. Everton are not a bad team and when they are priced so high they are a fun bet.

Liverpool and Chelsea should win too, but are priced too low now. Any value has gone from their prices.

Primera:

Malaga

Malaga is a team I think I can go well this season and away to Celta they should win without problems

Deportivo

Deportivo were really good in segunda last season and could go weill in Primera this season. They start their campaign against Osasuna, a team i think will struggle. Their price is really good here.

Bilbao, Atl. Madrid, Sevilla should all win too

Segunda:

Murcia

Murcia have been good in preseason friendlies and I think they will end top 10 this season (or even better). Cordoba is a team they should beat and their price is good.

Villareal

Villareal have lost some players but still could be good enough to fight for promotion. Real Madrid Castilla played in Segunda B and will find life in Segunda really tough. They will be  overrated as Real Madrid´s second team but they ar enot good enough IMO to reach any highrt position. In Segunda B they were really fortunate with referee´s decisions all last season, especially at home. It felt like the refs were afraid to go againt the mighty Real. In Segunda, the referees are not really good either but they are more fair. Villareal are a good bet here.

Other bet ideas in Segunda:

Elche , Santander, Hercules

 

William Hill

Soon the summer will be over and the bigger football leagues in Europe will start. Also all wintersport will start before we know it. Feels strange to think about that in the first half of august. I myself have less and less interest in the bigger european leagues as they are too over analyzed and there usually are fw really good bets in a season. With good bets I am talking about real overprices, like we more often find in Iceland and smaller countries where compilers have no clue and never watch games themselves.

Offcourse you can find bets and make money in PL, Serie A, La Liga etc, but usually it is too time consuming searching for information so it rarely is worth it. So I usually listen to, and follow, some other punters that seem to have decent bets. I might come with few thoughts as I always have them but I may focus mainly on inplay live betting.

And when it comes to inplaybetting I usually bet with William Hill. They don´t have the best prices and not even the best selection of sports (as they are too UK-focused). But they have the inplay radio service, which is excellent. Their horse racing service is also super and some great tipsters often make you money in the long run. Try listening to it even if you usually don´t bet on horses.

But the inplay radio is a must if you bet on sports, especially football. Some great bets are put up every day. I mainly like the inplay betting skills of the people on the service better than their pregame bets, as some of them pregame sometimes put their focus a bit wrong (when it comes to overrating some team news etc.)

There are some great persons working on the service;

Mel, who sadly is the only female, loves Liverpool and Mr Depp.

Richard, darts enthusiast and paninicollector.

When Mel and Richard are in teh studo together the show usually is really good.

Pete who is good at lower german leagues.

Dave, Andy Murray-lover with good golf knowledge. Often finds bets that the others haven´t looked at.

Al, lover of beautiful tennis players (female ones)

Lee, taking care of the podcasts that IMO are the basis of the william Hill radio service.

Gav, Sheffield U-fanatic. Yes, not all have good taste. Try telling him that you are betting against Blades when he is in the studio.’

Ollie, Steve, ben, naz, Darren, mark etc. etc. (not meaning to forget anyone of the guys)

These guys (and 1 gal) are all worth a listen too. You will find them under the radio link on the William Hill webpage. If you just want to listen to podcasts then there are the PL ones that Lee has with Ron Atkinson and Robbie Savage. Also try listening to the one Lee makes with Steve and pete, where they tip up the championship games, but don´t expect them to understand Lee´s jokes.

Lee also has a really entertaining podcast about Rugby league. Worth a listen to them all every week. William Hill also has podcasts on Golf, reality TV etc. 

I have listened to William Hill radio for 12 years. First I started out listening to the horse racing service, and on the evenings there was a daily greyhound service. Used to love that show (often hosted by Nev Enders) and made loads of money listening to the expertise of the commentators. Especially Mark Sullivan (or GOD as I called him). He used to put up 3-4 naps every race day at Wimbledon and following him made me lots. I once took some winnings from my dog betting and travelled to London just to meet mark at Wimbledon. Mark´s wife was sick though so he was replaced by The Admiral (who usually did commentating from Catford, which is no longer in use). Also a great guy and I got to sit in his booth while he talked on air. Great Fun.

 During the years I have sent massive amounts of e-mails to the studios. They encourage you to do that (or contact them via twitter). Usually I send in bets and sometimes it´s just banter or some other odd reason. I am surprised that their spam filter isn´t sorting my e-mails out J

 

And NO, I am not getting sponsored by William Hill for writing this (even though any sponsorship is appreciated ;) )I just wanted to share a tip on the best thing on the internet. Try and listen to them and have great fun while making money on great tips.

olympics and bets

A bit more than halfway through a really unimpressive Olympic games. I have mostly watched the swimming and the track and field events. But I have also seen some handball, football, tennis etc. The feeling after seeing most of what I have seen is that the olympics is really unimpressing.
It is not all the athletes fault that it is the way it is. There are a few more things that are wrong.

1 - Too many sports that shouldn´t be in the olympics.
Tennis should not be an olympic event. It is the same kind of tournament like they play every week. It will never get the same status as a Grand slam and won´t be considered as big as some of the other ATP and WTA tournamnets. It actually feels even less interesting for some players as there is no prizemoney. Apart from that it is also one of the most boring sports to watch. Take it of the olympic schedule.
Also they should change the Womens football if it should be an olympic event. Why not a U23-tournamnet like the men´s is? While the women´s game is just like the world cup, we had a men´s tournament with many surprises.
Make more room for the sports seldom seen instead of having the so many "big" sports. Maybe move some of the indoor sports to the einter olympics instead. Handball, baxketball etc. are mainly played during the winter half of the year all around the world so why not have them in the olympic game sthat is on during the regular season?
Fewer sports also make it easier for the countries to host the games.

　
2 - Really lousy broadcasting
Yes, the BBC might be best in the world when doing crime and drama, but sports they are really lousy at. Like I already said, I have mainly watched swimming and athletics, and the brodcasting from these sports have been really bad at times. There has been loads of strange camera angels and bad producing, showing uninteresting things instead of what really happens. After the races there has been too long waits for replays and often the wrong information has been given. That is, when there has been information. Lack of text information about what event that is on at the moment has been really disturbing.
I thought that one thing that surely must be good when the olympics is held in England is the TV-broadcasts. But compared to Beijing and all recent olympics it is shit. BBC should be ashamed.

　
3- Patriotism
OK, alll countries cheer on their countrymen, but in the London olmpics it is ridiculous how patriotic the crowd is. It is worse than in Beijing and even worse that when the olympics has been held in the home of self-love, USA.
Even the broadcasting has been patriotic. On TV they have rather shown some unknown british competitor than the important good ones. When presenting athletes in track events for example, you always get to see the GB-athlete, then the favourites and lastly the nobodies. Even when the GB-athlete really is one of the nobodies.

　
But apart from all that there has been some good performances by athletes. Some really good swimming with the chinese Sun as the most impressive. Hopefully there have been no use of steroids etc. that will ruin the swimevents, but some americans should be looked at closely. Bolt´s 100 m final was impressive but so far the most impressive track- and field winner was the Kenyan who won the 3000 m steeple chase right before the 100 m final. What a runner and what really sincere happiness he showed after winning. Usually a long, quite boring event was now enjoyable and with a winner like that it made many new fans, I am sure.

oh, one last thing on the olympics. A blue field for landhockey??? Blue?? Looks really bad on TV and has made the sport even harder to watch and follow. Too bad with a sport that sometimes is quite fun and relaxing to watch.

　
Now over to some betting.
2 semifinal bets in the women´s football tonight.
France has impressed me more than Japan this tournament and I think they can beat Japan and reach the final.
In the other semi USA will beat their neighbours easily and I think a bet -1 is the best way to go and even USA to lead at HT is good

Later tonight I have a Spanish treble in Handball, Waterpolo, basketball