Weekend bets

WOW, what a friday. The Futsal ended 2-2 (big surprise) and Granada won :) Let´s keep it up with good bets for the rest of the weekend.


Primera:

The most interesting bets are 3 outsiders.
Celta 3,00 (2/1) travel to Vallecano to try and get the first away points this season and I think they will manange. vallecano are not a good team and Celta are overpriced. They have won on their last two visits to Vallecano

Deportivo 3,60(13/5) travel to Zaragoza. Depor have drawn 3 of their 5 away games and a draw is close this time too but I have a feeling that Deportivo can senak a win. When these teams meet there are never many goals, just 1 of the last 10 meetings have been over 2,5. So unders is a bet too.

Levante 11,00 (10/1) knows how to stop Real Madrid at home. The last three meetings here have ended 1-0, 2-0, 0-0. Levante are a good home side (4-1-0) and are just 3 points behind Real in the table. Still we get 10/1. Try handicaps +1 and +2 too.

I also think malaga, Valencia and Sevilla will win but prices are bit short.


Segunda

Sabadell 1,95 (19/20) had good form a while back but have not won in 6 games. But today they face a Huesca side with even worse form. Not a win in 8 games and with problems scoring. Sabadell are a team that are good enough to ficish top 6 and must start winning again.

Almeria 4/6 (1,67) are one ofth ebest Segunda teams this season. At home they are 5-1-0 wih 11-1 in goals. They play newcomers Mirandes, who have done it well in Segunda but will be too weak to upset Almeria. Their only away win came against Xerez in the beginning if the season. One of the banker bets this weekend.

Alcorcon 1,60 (6/10) are also a really good home team, losing points only to Guadalajra in the first week of the season. Lugo beat Elche last week but awaythey have only scored twice in 6 games and they won´t stand a chance here. Banker bet.

Murcia 6,00 (5/1) are overpriced away to Villarreal. Yes, Villarreal are a good hometeam (5-1-0) but after a great start to the season they have played poorly with just 1 win in the 5 latest games. Murcia are not world beaters away from home but their are overpriced today.


I was also thinking about Xerez to beat a Elche side that are a bit out of form, but the prices are too low. Girona and Guadalajara are worth a look too.



Segunda B group 1

Coruxo 3,10 (21/10) have been good at home (4-1-0) and are overpriced against league leaders Tenerife. Tenerife are not that good so they will keep on beaing undeaten and I think coruxo will get at least 1 point at a good price.

Fuenlabrada v Zamora to draw 3,40 (12/5) is a fun bet. Fuenlabrada have dran 3 of their 5 home games while Zamora have drawn 9 of their 11 games this season. As the home team is the better team I am sure Zamora will be happy eith a draw agian.

Other possible bets are Salamanca and Vallecano II



Segunda B Group 2

No great bets. Eibar and Lleida should win but are a tad short.



Segunda B group 3

Orihuela 2,50 (6/4) is my only bet. Theya re better than they have shown and won a cup game midweek and the last laague game and may carry the momentum over to this game at home to a really poor Constancia.

Other possible bets in this group are Gimnastic and Mallorca B



Segunda B group 4

San Roque 1,91 (19/20) are one of the best bets this weekend. They are great at home. Won all 5 games and 11-1 in goals. 9 of their 11 goals have been scored in the 2nd half so don´t worry if they aren´t leading at HT. Almeria B are a decent side but will find this game too tough.

Other price bets are Sevilla B and UCAM.
Loja, cartagena and Albacete all should win too but the prices are too short.




Banker treble:
San Roque
Alcorcon
Almeria
5,09 (4,1/1)


Midpriced treble
orihuela
Sabadell
Huelva
16,08 (15/1)

Friday bets

Just 2 value bets today. Let´s start with Futsal

Czech rep v Serbia  - a draw at 5,50 (9/2)
Why bet a  draw in the Futsal WC. you might ask. Well. Serbia has been the best team in the group so far and have won both games so far. Egypt and Czechs have a win each and Kuwait are worthless on 0 points so far and will lose to Egypt today.
That leaves Egypt on 6 points. If the serbs grab a point they will win the group and get to face Argentina in the next round. A second place in the group will have them face Russia (most probably). If 2 or more teams end up on the same point then goaldifference in the group decides where the teamms end and a Egypt will win by a lot, a loss would put Serbia 2nd. So Serbia will go for points.
A loss for Czechs would eliminate them from the WC as they won´t become one of the 4 best 3rd placed teams. A draw puts them through.
The Czechs would most likely have to win by 6 goals to get any better than 3rd in this group

So to sum this up.
A draw in the game gives Serbia first spot and the Czechs go through. Both teams happy and as these teams should be quite evenly matched anyway the draw is a likely outcome and priced too high at 9/2 (5,50)



Granda 5,50 (7/2)
Granada are better than their league position. They have started to score goals in every game and will climb a bit in th etable. Betis have been the better team so far but find it hard to be really dominant at home, winning 3 and losing 2 so far scoring just 7 goals.
Granada have a good attacking game and I think they have a bigger chance of scoring and winning than the prices indicate.

Wednesday

Been away a few days but now return with great bets for Wedensday. Both in football and in greyhounds and at the end I have a bet for the Swedish Topptipset.


Almeria 2,45 (29/20)
Great price. Should and will ebat Celta. Almeria have lost 1 of the 16 latest home games and they have won 10 of th last 11 at home. They are good enough for primera and I hope they will join Elche (and hopefully Murcia) in Primera next season. BET OF THE DAY!

Huesca 2,80 (9/5)
Should be favourites against barca B. Barcelonas B-side are not so good away and some players were in teh A-side´s cupsquad on tuesday.

Norwich 4,00 (3/1)
Surprisingly high price at ho,e to Spurs. Spur are better but will they play their best team in the League cup? Shouldn´t think so. Norwich have a great chance.

Jaén and cacareno could be +1 bets against teams that should be resting players.
las palmas could also be a bet at home to Vallecano

In Sweden I go for 4 away wins

Sundsvall lost at home to Norrköping but still has a chance to avoid relegation qualifications. Åtvidaberg are safe and don´t care any more. 2,90(19/10) is good enough for me.

Syrianska ruined AIK´s slim hopes of winning gold and now play a regional derby again away to Djurgården. A win for Syrianska might put them safe of qualification and Djurgården have nothing to play for. 3,80 (14/5) is too high IMO.

Göteborg play away to Helsingborg. Neither team has anything to play for so I go for the highest price, which is really good. 4,00 (3/1) too high in a game that could end any way.

norrköping could also be a bet against Kalmar. They were good away to Sundsvall and score many goals at the moment.


Greyhounds:

hall green 12.04 - 4 caribbean Moon
Hove 4.27 - 1 Beas joy
Sunderland 8.31 - 4 nervous Vicky
Newcastle 9.48 - 3 belvedere Emma



Topptipset (for swedes)

Chelea - man Utd  1X
Liverpool - Swansea  1X2
Norwich - Tottenham  1X
PSG - marseille 1X2
Djurgården - Syrianska  2
HIF - Göteborg  X2
kalmar - Norrköping X2
Åtvidaberg - Sundsvall 2

Keeping up the form

What a super friday it was. One of th ebest betting days in a long while.

The dog bets on the blog made loads of money if you followed them.

Skilful Porch came 5th but after that ALL the 3 other bets won :)
Bookies girls gave 7,00 (6/1)
Parkfield David gave 5,50 (9/2)
Away Day Tiny gave 6,00 (5/1)

I hope someone followed me in on these. More bets in this posting, further down.

If you follow me on twitter (marten_sweden) or listen to William Hills great inplay service you also got my best bet of the day; Huelva to beat barcelona B in the Segunda at 4,33 (10/3).

Great day as I said and I hope my bets are good today as well.

Starting with football and Spain (as usual) I only have 2 betting ideas today, both in the Segunda;

Huesca+1 2,25 (5/4)
Almeria are good, really good especially at home where they only lost points against hercules and in the last 5 games have kept a clean sheet. But sometimes they don´t play all that well and Huesca could be a tricky tie. They have won 2 of their 5 away games and lost 2, both really tight affairs. they can cancel Almeria out and I think they have a good chance of grabbing a point. The price is worth a small bet anyway.

Mirandes 5,50 (9/2)
Villarreal started the season great but have lost form with just 1 win in the last 5 games. At home they are unbeaten but I have seen Mirandes, who were great against Murcia and Xerez away and I think they have a chance of upsetting the out-of-form Villareal. Great price IMO.



Otherwise I think tese teams can be bets today;

Lund (in swedish div 1)
Cadiz  (Segunda B group 4)
Eibar (Segunda B group 2)
nantes +1
PSG -1 (away to the worst team in the league, Zlatan 2 or more also a bet)
Wolves
Norwich
Stoke




Greyhounds. I love greyhounds :)

Crayford 12.39  6- Westmead Nini
Romford 1.33 3-henry magic
Newcastle 4.14  1- Knoppogue pearl
Wimbledon 7.30 2- Glideaway Rob
Wimbledon 9.00  1- Romeo chill out

Greyhounds

I have been betting on dogs for many years. My interest started when I was in Australia many years ago, watching the fabulous Flying Amy. Best dog I have seen (together with Droopys shearer).

If you want to win money on greyhounds you can follow my tips. Will put them on the blog every now and again.

Today I have 4 bets on different tracks.

Monmore 2.57  Trap 2- Skilful Porch
Swindon 3.48  Trap 6 - Bookies girls
Belle Vue 8.10  Trap 6 - Parkfield David
Wimbledon  9.30  Trap 1 - Away Day Tiny

Sunday thoughts

I have been away most of the week and haven´t had time to write longer analysis of the games this weekend, but here are my sunday bets with some short comments.

Sociedad 3,60 (13/5)
Sociedad play hosts to Atl. madrid, who really have been good this season. Atletico can actually go on and challenge for a spot in the top 2 if they carry on. Here they have won on their last 2 visits scoring 4 goals each time.
So why do I bet against them? because Sociedad have been really good at home so far, winning all 3 games played. They also have won 10 of their last 13 homegames (10-2-1). AND Atletico have just met Betis, Espanyol and Levante on away turf this season and neither of those teams (even though Betis are high in the league) are so impressive. Tougher now against a really good home team and the price is too high on Sociedad.

Granada 1,91 (10/11)
I like Granada and their quick rise from Segunda B to a decent Primera team. They are Ok at home and against a poor Zaragoza side they should win comfortably.

Huelva 2,80 (9/5)
Huelva have won all 4 home games this season and were really good when beating Murcia and Alcorcon. Villareal have started the season good, but in the last couple of games been quite poor. Away they have 1 win and 2 losses in 4 games and they will ind the trip to Huelva tough.
Wrong favourite here IMO.

Murcia 2,80 (9/5)
Almost a derby as Murcia is really close to Elche (less than 60 km) so maybe there will be many spectators from both sides at the wonderful Nueva Condomina. Murcia are unbeaten at home and some times play as good as the best teams in the Segunda. When they beat Xerez away (3-0) a few weeks ago they were brilliant.
Today they take on Elche, unbeaten league leaders, who with a win can have a 8 point gap to the 2nd placed team. But I think they might struggle here. Elche are the best team in the segunda and I hope they will continue and be promoted. But away from home they have ahd some troubles and were lucky to beat both Mirandes and Hercules. They should not be favourites IMO so the bet is on Murcia.

Göteborg 2,40 (7/5)
The best bets of the day. AIK are priced as low as they are because they still have a small chance to win Allsvenskan (but they won´t). They lost to Gefle last time at home and maybe the cup games in Europe has taken it´s toll in the end of the swedish season?
Göteborg have recently beaten both Malmö and Elfsborg and will today beat another top team, AIK.
This price is really good!

Norrköping 3,60 (13/5)
Just a chance bet as Norrköping are  a good team and Elfsborg sometimes lately have seen a bit nervy. Just a value bet.


The rest of my ideas you will see in my accas.

Banker Double
Göteborg
Marseille
4,15 (3/1)

Medium treble
Everton
Granada
Göteborg
10,08 (9/1)

Chance treble
Sociedad
Huelva
Murcia
28,22 (27/1)

Spanish weekend

As there are loads of international games on the card this weekend and as those games usually are overanalyzed I have focused solely on Segunda and Segunda B in Spain. I will give you my comments on all Segunda games and also share a few segunda B thoughts. No prices on those everywhere yet so I will just point you in the right direction and you have to decide for yourselves when seeing the prices.

Segunda:

Guadalajara - Ponferradina
Guadalajara are still without a win and don´t show much hope in ever getting one (I am sure they will win some games sometime). They sometimes play good, especially at home, but they lack confidence and still loses the games. Last week though they drew to Xerez, but Xerez are awful.

Ponferradina have mixed results all season, but in the last 3 games they have been really good and when a team hits form in Segunda, you should always continue trusting them until they show clear signs of losing that form.

So the bet here is on the away team at quite good prices.

 
Sabadell - Hercules
Sabadell are a really good home team, 10 points in 4 games and the goal difference 8-1 is a proof of that. If they just get a little better when on travels they could be a team that will compete for a promotion spot.

Hercules was a team that many (incl. me) thought also would be a team fighting for promotion. But after their poor start they might struggle to avoid relegation. Last week they were 2-1 up against Castilla and looked good. But then they lost 2-4. OK, Castilla again got some help from the referee but Hercules really really lousy attack was the big reason for the loss. They have created chances all season but have just scored 3 goals. Lousy! Away they haven´t scored, but all games have been close (Three 0-1 losses and a 0-0 draw).

Sabadell are banker bet here. They lost away to Ponferradina last week but at home they are really good and Hercules are really poor.

 
Castilla - Las Palmas
Castilla beat Hercules last week. They were the better team but also, as usual, had some help from the referee. One thing you can count on when Castilla play at home is that there will be goals. So far they have won 3-2 twice and lost 1-2 and 0-3.

Las Palmas are a team that will struggle to survive in Segunda and so far they have not been good.

Castilla should win, but they ar enot a team to trust too much in. y bet here is instead the over 2,5 bet. This should be an open bet and with two poor defences we could see 4-5 goals.

 
Almeria - Cordoba
An Andalusian derby where I strongly believe that the home team is the better team and will win. Almeria are one of the better teams in the Segunda. They play a really creative football and have some good players.

Cordoba are not a bad team, but they are not as good as I thought preseason. They are good at home but sometimes play too careful when playing away and that Almeria will use.

Almeria are one of the better bets this week. They will win hereand the price is too high.


Barcelona B - Sporting
Barcelona B are an Ok home team and that is wher ethey will take the big part of their points this season. I am not a big fan of this team as they sometimes look really uninterested of playing as a team. It seems like all players are too individual as they are more interested in a place in the A-squad then they are of winning games.

Sporting are a big disappointment so far. They have struggled in every game where they meet one of the better teams. But are Barcelona B one of them? I am not sure.

Stay away from betting here, at least until it comes live inplay betting. It could finish either way.

 
Villarreal - Huesca
Villarreal have started the season really good and at home they have been awesome. They have won all 4 home games. Looking at the table it might seem like the games have been close but Villarreal have won rather simply even though the scores don´t show that. Last week they lost their first game of the season, away to Sporting. But I think they are strong enough to bounce back from that and start winning again.

Huesca have been quite good away from home and they don´t seem as anxious as they do at home. They are better than their league position and could surprise here.

Villarreal have become too big favourites here. Huesca could spring a surprise and a +1 bet on them is the way I go here.

 
Girona - Recreativo
Girona have just let in 1 goal in 4 homegames and have many players that are good enough for the Primera.

Reccreativo are super strong at home. 4 wins and 11 goals scored. They are equally really lousy when playing away. Just 1 point in 4 games and 0-9 in goal difference. I can´t see them fixing those stats when visiting Girona.

This should be an easy home win. Girona score for fun when they feel like it and against a Recreativo team who are so bad on their travels they should win by a few goals.

 
Alcorcon - Mirandes
Alcorcon are a team that will finish in position 8-12. Not good enough for promotion play off and good enough to stay way clear of the bottom.

Mirandes are most famous for their cup run last season. They also won promotion to Segunda but this season they have not had so much fun. They beat Xerez by 4-0 and played well against Murcia when visiting them, but apart from those games they have shown that they are not good enough for the Segunda and I think they will be found in Segunda B again next season.

Not a game to bet much on. Neither team are anything to trust and the prices are quite uninteresting.

 
Elche - Numancia
Oh, Elche. What a good team. They are great in attack and great in defense. They already have a 5-point lead in the Segunda after losing points in just 1 game. At home they have 4 wins and 13-4 in goal difference. They are the best team by far so far this season and it will be a shame if they lose form and miss out on a spot in the Primera.

Numancia are a team that rarely are involved in games with many goals. Last week’s win against Lugo was an exception. But that was at home. Now they play away to a really strong team. Numancia always go for low scoring draws when playing away and their tactic will be a destructive goalless game.

Elche will find Numancia´s defense hard to crack but after their first goal there could be more. Elche are that good. Numancia will fight for 0-0 but look for a banker home win here. Also try bets on more goals in the second half as it might take time for Elche to start scoring.

 
Lugo - Murcia
Lugo are very up and down this season, but mainly their points have come against poorer teams.

Murcia are not a poor team. They are one of the stronger teams in the league but sometimes struggle when playing away from Nueva Condo mina. In their last two games (away to Xerez, 3-0, and home to Racing, 1-0) they have looked really strong and when playing at their best they show that they are a team that can fight for promotion.

I thought Murcia would be slight favourites, so the price is tempting. But just with small stakes.

 
Xerez - Racing
Xerez have not been good this season. They have 2 home wins, but have lost the other two homegames by a total of 0-7.

Racing are one of the teams that one week are good and next week are bad. They have found life in Segunda a bit tougher than they thought but have been playing better and better. Last week they lost away to a good Murcia side, but created many chances.

Look for an away win here. Also try Racing -1 as Xerez collapse when going a goal down at home.
Racing are a good team, better than Xerez anyway

　

 
In Segunda B I will write a little about each group and then give you the games where bets might be found and what price I wouldn´t bet under. Prices not up yet so this is NOT prices I have found at bookies, but what I think is the lowest possible price. Yes bets are only in decimal form, so suck it up Britons and learn to look at prices in this way. Decimal form is way better than your fraction way of pricing up matches. Especially when calculating accas.

Group 1:
Some interesting home wins to expect
in this group but the most interesting bet can be Salamanca, who are really good and should beat a poor Alcala side.

Possible bets:
alcala – Salamanca 2-1,90
Getafe B – Real Madrid C 1-1,60
M. de Luanco – Leganes 1-1,40
Tenerife – Athletic B 1-1,60

Group 2:Not many interesting bets here as many teams have strange form. But if you want a banker this weekend, look no further than Eibar. Reallygood team at the moment and will win.

Possible bets:eibar – Teruel 1- 1,35
Lleida – Zaragoza B 1-1,40
Sociedad B – Real Union 2-2,45

Group 4:

cartagena lost their perfect record last week after a disappointing 0-0 draw at home. Now they have some really tricky games in the upcoming weeks and the first loss might come this week against Sevilla Atl.

In this group there might be some good winners at higher prices this weekend.

Possible betsAlbacete – Villanovense 1-1,80 Linense – La Roda 1-2,00
Murcia – Cadiz 1-2,70
San Roque – Arroyo 1-1,45

Maybe I am way off in the above games when it comes to prices, but if pricing is much higher the bets offcourse are good


　

Banker treble:
eibar
Elche
Sabadell

Midprice treble:
Racing
Salamanca
Almeria

Chance treble:
Ponferradina
Murcia
Huesca

And don´t forget the over bet in the Castilla game. Should be a winning bet

weekend was awful

Quite a miserable week, especially when it came to my betting. Not a winning bet in Primera for me. Segunda once again delivered and as I watch more Segunda games I might focus more on that league in the future. The weekend was always miserable whwn it came to the games played. A long time ago that there were more really worthless games ina weekend. Some teams seemed not to care at all. Maybe it is the summer heat that has come back to parts of spain that is the reason? Probably not as most games were played later on in the days, but temperatures much over 30 degrees, a week into october is quite nice.

Biggest disappointment was Mallorca. I haven´t seen anything from the game and not rea reports yet, but how can they lose at home to Granada? Mallorca must count themselves lucky that there is a break now for international games.

Best an most impressive team was once again Elche, especially uring parts of the first half, when they were really good.

Segunda are playing in he weekend, but the top divisions in Europe rest for WC-qualifiers.

So any bets will come in Segunda and looking at what games will be played, the most interesting teams to bet on might be:

Elche - they take on Numancia who were good against Lugo and still no team has scored against themm when visiting Numancia. But Elche play at home and are clearly the best team in Segunda by far at the moment.

Sabadell - Great home team, 10 points in 4 games. Now they play at home to hercules, who I have given up on. They are too uneven and still have problems finding the back of the net.

I might make some bets ahea of the weekend, but not in the international games as I have no interest or time to analyze the games.

Weekend bets

Interesting week that showed that the gap between the best in Europe and the rest is getting too big and is killing football. Champions League will continue to make the rich richer and in the end that will be what killed football. I believe that in 20 years time, football will not be the biggest sport on the planet and that the money will be found elsewhere.
It is just like Rugby in Sweden. The two big teams (of which my hometown team is one) can good enough to be better than 99% of the swedish players. This has resulted in only those two teams ever being good enough to chalenge for the title. according to some players in other teams, it has also resulted in players (sometimes good) that has quit the sport as there is no fun playing in teams that are without any chance of winning anything. Rugby in Sweden is a really small sport and will never be big, but if this continues it will die out completely.

But.. this is just my guess and my views. As long as there are good bets to be made I don´t care what happens to football. Football has become boring to watch, especially on top level. This is why I love to watch Segunda football 8even though the referees are bad) and football from Iceland. I love the way they play in Iceland and the women´s games are awesome to watch.
 Oh... by the way... Liverpool still sucks. Kick the manager and appoint Basil brush or Björne (see... references to both british and swedish children´s TV). Or start selling all players and begin preparing for life in The Championship. But I am sure Liverpool would struggle there as well the way they are playing at the moment.

Now... for the weekend... In spain the Classico is the big one and that is one game I will bet in.

But I will start in England. Best bet on the English card is West brom to beat QPR. QPR are really worthless and should have been relegated last season, but... they got another year in the Premiership but will be leaving in may. Trust me on that. WBA are overpriced at evens (2.00) or more.

Everton are also a good bet at about the same price. They face Wigan away from home and Wigan is a team I believe will follow QPR to the championship when the season is over.

Arsenal should beat Hammers in the London derby. Arsenal played in CL at home to Olympiakos on wednesday, but that shouldn´t affect this game at all. Good price on Arsenal at just under evens.

In Sweden the title chace is coming to an end. Elfsborg have a lim lead and looking at the last rounds they should grab it. But any slip ups could hand the trophy to AIK or Häcken.
This week I think that Norrköping are priced really high at Malmö and Örebro will have a good shot at clsong the gap in the bottom by beating Sundsvall.


Now to Spain and the Classico.

Real madrid must be the bet in this game. Over 3/1 (4,00) is ridiculous now that Ronaldo have been feeling a bit less cry-babyish. I actually have so much faith in Real that I have put them down as value bet of the weekend. 3-1 will be what they win by.

Malaga is another hugely overpriced team this week. OK, they face Atletico Madrid, who ar eplaying really well in the league, but 3/1 and more on malaga is too high. Have you seen how they play? Malaga have been underrated all season even though they play the best football in Spain at the moment.

Valladolid will look at another big win, now that they face Espanyol. I had hopes in Espanyol the last couple of weeks but they look extremely poor this season and Valladolid are a great bet.

Valencia face Levante in a local derby and  must be the bet. They create chances but have been poor scoring on them and their defence looked awful when losing to Mallorca the other week. Levante played in EL on thursday and they have not impressed me at all this season in the league.

mallorca are bankers for me against Granada. Granada have yet to score on away soil this season, but they are a bit excused as they have played at both Barcelona and Real Madrid. Mallorca have won all their home games and last week they lost their first game of the season,  at Getafe, and will start a new unbeaten run here. Mallorca should not be priced over 1/2 (1,50), but they are :)


In Segunda there are a few interesting agmes and I have 3 bets.

Murcia were really good last week when beating Xerez 3-0 away. now they play at home against Racing, who were poor against Numancia last week.

Xerex have 0-6 in their last two games and are looking really really poor. They now travel to Guadalajara, who after grabbing a point at Alcorcon in the first game, have lost six in a row. But in some games they have been close and even worth a win. I believe their first 3 pointer this season will come here, at home to a dismal Xerex.

No team has so far this season scored at Numancia. This week Lugo will try to change that. I don´t think they will succeed but even if they do, Numancia will score more and win. Not that Numancia usually score more than a maximum of 1 goal in  a game... But their price is goo enough for me to bet on them.


Banker treble:
Murcia
Mallorca
WBA


Midpriced treble:
Numancia
valencia
Everton

Chance treble:
Malaga
Real Madrid

European cups

A great weekend for my favourite teams. Murcia won 3-0 away to Xerez in the Segunda and were really good. Next weekend they face Racing at home. Racing have started to play better lately but have huge problems creating chances. Murcia should win at Nueva Condomina.

Cartagena won again in Segunda b and have now won all 6  games and they are the only Segunda B team who have maximum points. This week they take on San Roque at home. San Roque are 5th placed having won all 3 home ties but away just got 2 points in 3 games. Cartagena have a good chance of continuing their great run.

In futsal El Pozo Murcia won (5-1 at home to Manacor). They  have a maximum 9 points so far, so does Inter Movistar, who also won. barcelona won thier game too and this will be the story most of the weeks. these three will win most games and the title will be decided by who is the strongest when they meet and by some team slipping up against opposition they normally should beat.

 

This weekend the following teams impressed me most:

Murcia - looked really strong.

Elche - once again a good performance. Best team by far in Segunda so far and I hope they will continue being that so they reach Primera.

 

Looking ahead to the weekend I feel that Valladolid could win big again as they now face Espanyol, who are just bad. Valencia should be stronger in the derby against Levante, mallorca should bounce back from last nights loss and beat Granada. Oh, yes, there is the classico too. I think Real madrid have a chance of winning and looking at the prices posted so far, they are overpriced a lot. Bet on them. 

In Segunda there are many open games this weekend. Will get back with bets later this week.

 This week we once again have European football. I have a few bet recomendations;

Cluj and Ajax are both overpriced against man Utd and Real madrid. One or both could cause an upset a great prices.

Zenit are one of the better bets in CL against a Milan side that does not look good this season.

Otherwise I think that many favourited could win again. I have 3 midweek trebles:

 

Banker:

Juventus

Valencia

Sp. Moscow

 

medium:

Zenit

Hannover

Galatasaray

 

Chance:
Paris SG

Cluj +1

Ajax +1

Topptipset 27/9

Just for Swedish readers 

Topptipset idag är intressant och jag har ett förslag på 144 rader:

 1. Häcken - Helsingborg  1

Häcken spelar för guld och jag hoppas de vinner då jag spelade dem inför allsvenskan. De är i bra form och gör många mål. Här ska man vinna mot ett HIF som är ganska mediokra.

 2. Malmö - IFK göteborg   1X2

Här har MFF blivit för stora favoriter. Göteborg till under 15% är kanonbra. Alltid speciella matcher då dessa möts och här har jag feeling att IFK kan ta hem det hela. De rensar bra.

3. Halmstad - Öster  1X

Öster i princip klara för allsvenskan. HBK vill också tillbaka och känns som laget med mest motivation här. 1X räcker långt. 

4. Umeå - Trelleborg   1

TFF har haft en tuff säsong och den kommer fortsätta vara tuff eftersom de får stryk mot ett annat lag som slåss i botten. Umeå är bättre för dagen och hemma ska man slå TFF. Jag bankar då Umeå borde vara mer streckade.

5. Varberg - Hammarby  1X2

Helgarderar direkt. bajen ska vinna men är överstreckade. Varberg kan slå alla lag i superettan och i mina ögon är under 25% för lågt på dem. 

6. Siena - Bologna  1X

Mycket trolig hemmaseger. Men Siena är lite överstreckade. Ta med krysset för bättre värde. Bologna kan ni dock lämna därhän.

7. Thun  - Young Boys  1X

YB ska inte vara favoriter IMO. Tror de blivit så bara för att de sitter på närminnet hos folk efter matchen mot Liverpool förra veckan. Bra värde på 1X och det räcker.

 8. Bochum - Kaiserslautern  1X

Lite av en chansning men jag tycker även här att värdet ligger på 1X. Öppen 50-50 match och med 1X känner jag mig inte helt trygg, men finner det vara det bästa spelt. helgardera gärna.

 

System 144 rader

1

1X2

1X

1

1X2

1X

1X

1X                       

Weekend bets

malaga - Me gustas Malaga. Great price on Malaga in CL and they won, 3-0!!

Many favourite wins in CL, but Bate, Cluj and Anderlecht surprised a bit. My bets went great, but I am disappointed in English football. Once again.

Chelsea were 2-0 up but only managed a 2-2 draw. Bad!! Manchester C were 2-1 up against Real madrid, with just a few minutes left. And lost 2-3. Awful!! This loss will be the reason that man C won´t progress to the next stage of the CL. What?, you might say. They only lost away to Real Madrid, like most teams will do. Yes, but the way they lost will be in their mind all through the competition and the insecurity will arise in the team every game. The 3-2 goal for Real should not have happened. No one will trust the idiot defender who decided not to use his head, in any sense. Absolutely awful and that is the reason I bet against them in the PL this weekend. This will be on their minds a while.

 

I also think man C could struggle next time in the CL at home to Dortmund. If Real keep up the low standard they have at the moment, then even Ajax could beat them at home in the next round.

 Otherwise the interesting games in next round are Zenit v Milan, where Zenit have a great chance to win. Porto v PSG, in which we get to see if PSG are a team that are good enough for Europe. Cluj and Bate take on top opposition in Man Utd and Bayern. I will get back on these games in 2 weeks.

Now for the weekend.

I have already stated that I bet against man C. arsenal may have played away in Europe this week, but it was just in Montpellier and they should not be priced as they are here.

Liverpool have started poorly and played in Europe on Thursday. But I think they are underrated against Manchester U. These are the games that Liverpool usually perform better in nowadays. Good price on the home team. 

Other winners in England for me are Hammers at home to Sunderland and WBA against Reading.

In lower divisions I go for a Sheffield double and a win for Bournemouth, who are priced really good

In Spain there are some good bets to be found again.

Mallorca are still unbeaten and have won both home games. Now they take on Valencia, who have not impressed so far and had a tough game midweek. I think the compilers have looked at previous seasons here and not at current form. Good home winners.

 

Espanyol were unlucky last week when almost beating Bilbao. They are getting closer to the first win and I think it will come against Betis. Betis won away last week in a tight game and that is lucky for us as it has made Betis too big favourites here.

 

Atletico Madrid were really good on Thursday in Europa league and Valladolid should be an easy match. Low price but a banker win.

 

Also look for Getafe to win away against Celta at a really good price.

In Segunda I have 4 bets to recommend

Sabadell have great form with 3 straight wins (incl. the cup game) of which 2 were at home. This week they face Xerez at home. Xerez have been awful away from home and Sabadell is a tough place to go.

 Guadalajara are last with just 1 point. They face real Madrid Castilla this week and I don´t understand how this is priced up. Castilla have lost both away games and looked confused defensively last week and I think Guadalajara will take their first 3-pointer this weekend. 

Elche have won 5 of 5 games in the league and are looking really good. They have real fighting spirit and a few players that could fit in a top division side. Offcourse the first loss is coming closer, but against Huesca they have a good chance of winning again. Huesca might be high up in the ladder but they have taken points mainly against teams out of form or that will end in the lower regions. I saw Huesca against Murcia and they will have to improve a lot to beat Elche.

 Talking about Murcia, they are my last bet in Segunda. They play away to Numancia, a team that I really don´t like as they play very negative football IMO. Numancia have drawn 3 of 5 games and have not scored in the last 3 games. They will find it tough to do that against a Murcia side, who, when they play like in the second half last week, are strong defensively and quick in attacks. Good away price.

 I know not all of you find prices in Segunda B but there are bookies who offer it and usually some of the games come up inplay (atleast at William Hill). My thoughts this weekend.

Group A:

Alcala – good price for a home win against a poor away side, Fuenlabrada. Alcala have met really good teams when playing away and that is why they have a low league position. They should end mid-table.

Avilés and Rayo B are two home teams that should win in this group too.

Group B:

Alavés could be the most sure winners this week. They are playing really good and have won all 4 games without conceding a single goal. They face Noja this week, a team that is a class under Alavés and that will show.

Eibar have found great form and could continue a good spell away to a poor Barakaldo. Barakaldo will struggle all season and I think we´ll see them in tercera next year.

Athletic B and SD Logrones are two other teams to try bets on.

Group C:

Yeclano have had some problems coming in to the Segunda B stride as newcomers. But at home they are good and even though they play top team Olympic, I think they will win and the price is really good.

Atl. Baleares face Alcoyano, who really have continued their poor season in Segunda with an awful Segunda B-season start. Atl. Baleares is a team that should finish top 5 and here they will win without a problem.

Also look for hospitalet to win.

 Group D:

Cartagena, who played in Segunda last season (and the season before where close to a shot at qualifying to Primera) have a maximum 12 points after playing some really good football. On Sunday they play at home to Loja, a team that is much weaker and have lost both away games so far. Cartagena are too quick and have to many better players and are really strong home bankers.

Jaen have still to let a goal in. They have played really well so far and even though they play Albacete, a team I think could end really high in this group, thy must be a bet again.

Almeria B are also a good side that have started he season strong. They showed that they have a few really decent players when beating UCAM last week. This week they take on cacreño at home ,the team that jaen beat without even breaking a sweat last week. Look for a big win by 3 or more goals.

In this group I also like Arroyo and cadiz this week.

 

Interesting games in the Futsal in Spain this weekend. All top tipped teams play away. Inter have the toughest game and could lose. Barcelona face a team they should beat and Murcia meet a team they will win against even with their eyes close. Maybe the first big win of the season.

I see that WH have prices on Futsal. 4/1 on Manacor is worth a shot and Murcia are a banker.

 

In Sweden it is really exciting with 8 rounds left. At the start of the season Elfsborg looked like certain league winners. I recommended bets on Häcken pre season. I hope someone followed as they now are second, just 2 points behind Elfsborg. On the same point as häcken we also find AIK and Malmö. Of these teams Häcken play the best football Imo and they score most goals of all teams in allsvenskan. 5 so far (after 22 games) while elfsborg and Malmö have scored 37 each and AIK only 30. Häcken are +23 in goaldifference, next best in Allsvenskan are elfsborg with +15.

This weekend I have bets on;

Häcken and Norrköping

 

My trebles:

Banker

Atletico Madrid

Sabadell

WBA

4/1 (4,89)

 

Medium treble

Mallorca

Hercules

Guadalajara

18/1 (18,76)

 

Chance

Espanyol
Murcia
Arsenal
71/1 (72,00)

 

sevilla topped of a super week

Before talking about bets I must say something about a thing that bugs me more and more. In Spain and Italy the referees too often give goalkeepers freekicks when a player clashes with them. This happened atleast twice in the segunda this weekend (in the games I saw anyway). An attacker slides in the penalty area and hits the ball. The goalkeeper and the player then clashes as the player either slides into him och the goalkeeper also is sliding. In the Murcia game it was ridiculous. A Murcia player slid in the penalty area and struck the ball. the goalkeeper was half a second late and collided with the player. this shouldn´t have been a freekick, but only did the goalkeeper get that, the Murcia player got a yellow card.

The referees are ruining football by giving the goalkeepers to many favours. take it from someone who, without fouling, broke the same keeper´s nose twice in one season and got another keeper to fall and break his arm, during his spell as a player.

 

Some great bets this weekend. Sevilla won and 4/1 (5,00) on them really helped to make last week a really profitable one. Real are having problems and are playing really dull.

Otherwise my favourite teams this seson, Elche and Almeria both won in segunda. Murcia just got a draw but dominated in the second half after being 0-2 down at halftime and they should have had a penalty.

Espanyol were really close to beating Bilbao and Mallorca managed a draw but not more.

 In France Zlatan scored again and in England Chelsea and man c lost points and Liverpool once again failed to win. Will they win a game before X-mas? Me think not.

 Quite a lot of winning bets again on the blog, even if my trebles all missed.

  European football this week, will get back to that later on. First a look at the upcoming weekend.

Mallorca v Valencia is the game of the weekend and the way the teams are playing than the home team must be the bet. Real go to vallecano, surely they must win that game? Malaga go to Bilbao. i hope for a good price there.

 

In Segunda there seems to be the possibility of many away wins, so be sure that there will be upsets. No clear ideas there this week. Will await the prices before thinking about bets in Segunda.

 

In Segunda B, Cartagena won again. Hopefully they will be back up in Segunda next season.

 

In Futsal, all favourites won. .El Pozo Murcia won 2-1 after playing really bad. But as I suppose they and Barcelona once again will pull clear from all other teams, winning against lower teams will be necessary. Barcelona also just won by a goal so neither team of the favourites impressed in the first round.

 

 

Quick CL bets:

Manchester C +1 – There is something wrong with Real Madrid. Will this be the season where we see Mourinho being sacked? They are not playing well and Ronaldo often looks like he wants to be elsewhere. Maybe in City as some rumours say? Manchester C will go for a draw here and I think they will succeed with that.

 

PSG – time for zlatan and co to show why they are paid their high wages. Kiev should be an easy task for PSG if they play to their full potential.

 

Chelsea – What a game. Juventus are playing good and are really hard to beat. But Chelsea has looked good in PL so far. Forget the 0-0 against QPR. Maybe their minds were on this game?! Good price on a team that usually wins at home in europe.

 

Bayern – Valencia have not played as well as I had hoped this season. They are hard to score against but Valencia have shown that they have problems scoring too. Bayern are maybe the best team in Europe and will win here.

 

Malaga – Great form and will beat Zenit by a few goals if playing like they do in Primera. Only worry with Malaga is that a good run in CL might hamper them in the league.