Swedish Thoughts Thursday-Friday 26-27 april

A few Swedish games are played in Allsvenskan and Superettan the next two days. Hopefully I will be home on Saturday so I can write something aboutthe games being played during the weekend too.

Thursday

Allsvenskan

Elfsborg v GAIS
Elfsborg´s only loss of the season so far came away to reigning champions Helsingborg. They have won the other 4 games played. But Helsingborg i also the only side that thwy have met that will be in the top third of Allsvenskan. So it is hard to value their start of the season.
GAIS have disapointed me and even though they beat Norrköping last week and even though they only have lost 1 game so far, I am beginning to think that I may have overrated them.
At the moment Elfsborg is the much better team and should win. But 8/13 (1,61) is too low so I will stay away from pregame betting and wait for the live inplay betting and if Elfsborg start well I will bet on them at hopefully better prices.

Gefle v AIK
AIK have won both awaygames and drawn all three games at home. Gefle beat Kalmar away last time to get their first win of the season. AIK are hard to beat and are good defensively, but I have a feeling that the value is on the hometeam here. Apart from lst season teh games between these teams usually are tight affairs and looking at how the teams have played thi s season there won´t be many goals. I will try a small bet on Gefle at 9/4 (3,25) just for the value. And a bigegr bet on there being under 2,5 goals in the game.



Superettan

varberg v Falkenberg
A derby and a big crowd is expected. Varberg plays their first season ever in Superettan but have made good signings and started the season well. They have just one win but have played good against tipped top teams Assyriska (who scored twice in teh last 8 minutes to win) and Landskrona.
Falkenberg is a disapointment for me. In both home games so far they have met teams they should beat but have only come away with 1 point.
Varberg are IMo the stronger team at the moment and being the "little brother" in this serby and with many spectators they will have the extra energy needed to win and are a good bet at 11/8 (2,37)



Friday

Allsvenskan

Helsinborg v Mjällby
A great bet IMO. Both teams have 8 points so far but Helsingborg will win this. Mjällby have 2 straight homewins but have struggled away (even though they were the better team away to AIK in the first game). Helsingborg have played ok, maybe not as good as last season but they are starting to find their way. I can´t see anything but a cleat homewin and 8/13 (1,61) is actually a really good banker bet.